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Soybean shipments from Brazil to China replace purchases from Beijing to the US
Trump’s tariff war benefited Brazil and also Argentina
After China suspended soybean purchases from the United States between June and August, due to President Donald Trump’s tariff war, other suppliers, such as Brazil and Argentina, found a new niche, according to a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents 6 million North American farmers.
The organization indicated that Chinese imports of American soybeans fell to their lowest level in 2025. In contrast, Brazil became the main supplier of the grain to the Asian giant. Between January and August 2025, China imported just 5.8 million tons of American soybeans, compared to 26.5 million in the same period the previous year, a drop of almost 80%.
From June to August, the report noted, the United States sent virtually no soybeans to China and the Asian country purchased no new crops for next year’s harvest. In contrast, Brazil exported more than 77 million tons of the product to the Chinese market in the same period. During the same period, Argentina increased soybean sales after suspending the export tax, reimbursing it after the export value exceeded $7 billion.
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the recession is not an isolated event and is the result of China’s supplier diversification policy, which has been in place for years.
Since 2018, when the first Trump administration launched the trade war, China has stopped prioritizing American farmers, even though Chinese domestic demand is at record levels.
In addition to soybeans, U.S. corn, wheat and sorghum exports to China have fallen to zero by 2025, and pork and cotton sales remain weak.
According to the survey, the US Department of Agriculture predicts that the total value of agricultural exports to China will fall to $17 billion this year, 30% less than in 2024 and more than 50% less than in 2022. For 2026, the estimate is even lower: just $9 billion, the lowest level since 2018.
The Trump administration is preparing a new financial aid package for rural producers, similar to that granted in 2019, when more than 22 billion dollars were allocated to the sector during the first trade war with China. “We will use tariff resources to support our farmers,” Trump declared on Truth Social. At the same time, the US Treasury is studying emergency measures to contain the agricultural trade deficit.
In addition to the trade war, American farmers are affected by falling prices for internationally traded primary goods and rising logistics costs, aggravated by low water levels in the Mississippi River.
The United States Department of Agriculture estimates that the country’s agricultural income will fall 2.5% in 2025, reaching the lowest level since 2007. (Source: Agência Brasil)