Political earthquake in Catalonia. Alianza Catalana will tie with Junts in the Catalan Parliament, reaching 19-20 deputies, if independent elections are now held in the community. that Sylvia Orioles They currently have two seats out of 135 … Which constitutes the Legislative Council. Therefore, they will increase 17-18 seats. Junts will lose 15 or 16 deputies, remaining at 19-20, and the ERC will gain two or three seats, reaching 22-23 deputies.
Thus, according to the poll published on Monday by the Center for State Opinion Studies (CEO), Orioles will be poised to lead the independence movement in Parliament. If the vote intention and seat prediction continues, it will also lead to the Mayor of Ripoll (Girona) becoming Leader of the Opposition. salvador ella, According to this poll, he will win the elections, but will lose between two and four representatives. The number of seats in the Political and Social Council will increase from 42 to 38-40 seats.
Behind them will be Vox, who is with him Ignacio Garriga At the front, he will have two or three seats, from 11 to 13-14; It will exceed PP of Alejandro Fernandez Who, for the first time, will be displaced by Fox in Parliament in an electoral projection by seats. Popular seating will range from 15 to 12-13 seats. As for the communes and the CUP, the prospects for change are slim. that Jessica Albayach They will remain in the six seats they have, and the anti-capitalists, three or four.
With this seat estimate from the CEO (whose field work was carried out between October 13 and November 11 of this year), Illa can reaffirm the left’s majority in parliament If the upper portions of the PSC and ERC seating ranges are provided. This, combined with the votes of the communes, would give 69 deputies, one more than the absolute majority they now enjoyed. But the lower part of the range could leave the tripartite party with 66 seats. Ella will be far from judged.
The rise of the Orioles will only allow for an independent president thanks to this bloc. Aliança will grow at the expense of those Carles Puigdemont Thus, the separatists would be left without an absolute majority if they added the ERC, Junts, Aliança and CUP seats. In total, if the results of the state poll are announced, Parliament will obtain between 67 and 63 seats for representatives of pro-independence parties. In this way, it will be very difficult to form a new executive authority.
In Congress, the rise of ERC and Vox
On the other hand, the CEO also asked about the estimate of the seats that would be obtained in Catalonia for Congress, if the general elections were held now. The PSC could win a seat by remaining in 19-20 of the 19 seats it won in the 2023 elections. It will again be the party with the most votes. After Illa representatives become the ERC, which will jump from the current seven to nine or ten representatives. that oriol Junqueras, with Gabriel Ruffian As headliners, they will significantly overtake the Junts, which will lose one or two of the current seven seats.
Those five or six seats that Gontz will get will be the same in number as those that the People’s Party and Vox could get. The first, who now has six, can lose one; While Garriga’s men could win by three or four compared to the two they got in the last elections. Sumer, for his part, will lose four: from seven to three. The CUP will not have a representative in the House of Representatives. Alianza Catalana confirmed, through Orioles’ statements, that she will not run in the general elections.
(news by extension)