“Andalusia will be exposed to a major earthquake in the next five years, and the challenge is to prepare well.”

Jesús Miguel Ibáñez Godoy (Granada, 1964) is what can be a specialist in this matter qualified by all the law. He is Professor of Earth Physics in the Department of Theoretical and Cosmological Physics of the Faculty of Science of the University of Granada and has decades of accumulated experience. He is also a true expert on Antarctica, which he has visited on several occasions for scientific purposes.

His predictions are clear, but Ibanez explains that this in itself shouldn’t seem too alarming. “When that happens, We will be ready Because we know what its effects could be. In Granada or Almería, although they are areas at risk of earthquakes, an earthquake with a magnitude of 8 cannot be predicted because there is no such magnitude that can be broken, which is what happens at Cape St. Vincent, in Portugal, where on the other hand we are also prepared for the possibility of an earthquake of these dimensions.

When using terms like volume or rupture, you have to be more precise, and this is what the specialist does next: “Volume is a number used to determine the energy released during a rupture within the Earth. When a crack explodes, energy is released that is calculated in joules, a unit simplified to less complex numbers called volume. If it is 8, it means it has been released Huge amount of energyThere is no large area in Andalusia that can be broken down and released such a quantity.”

Tremors under the sea

Although earthquakes, due to their persistence and magnitude, can give more respect in Granada and Almería, we must not overlook the tremors that come from the bottom of the sea, and the dangers that also arrive by sea, in the form of tsunamis. About 400 kilometers of it Cape St. Vincent “There are many faults capable of generating movements with a magnitude of 8 degrees,” points out Jesús Ibáñez.

There is room for the rift to rupture and generate a huge amount of energy. This is what happened in 1755 in what is called an earthquake Lisbon -An incorrectly attributed name, because the epicenter of the earthquake occurred in the sea – which “destroyed the coasts Ayamonte, Huelva and Connell With waves reaching a height of 15 meters, it caused the death of about twenty thousand people on the Andalusian coast.

In light of all this, the question is clear: What can be done? More than anything else, Ibanez focuses on prevention rather than prediction, because earthquakes, right now, You can’t see them coming in advance. “It is something that will not be achieved for many years,” predicts the former director of the Institute of Geophysics, who knows that an artificial intelligence system has been developed. University of Texas It is assumed that he was able to predict 70% of earthquakes in an area located in the southwest of China Up to a week in advance.

“Artificial Intelligence may make mistakes”

But he downplays it. “What artificial intelligence does is use statistical data in an area where earthquakes are common, it applies probability. But it is possible to make mistakes, as also happens with meteorology, which also uses artificial intelligence. If there are many earthquakes in one place There is more data to establish a statistical basis. If there aren’t any, there’s no point. “If I had two black cats in my house and they were the only ones I had ever seen, I could think that all the cats in the world were black,” he explains in a very graphic way.

With prediction out of the way, we must focus on prevention, an area in which the citizen of Granada realizes that there is still much to do. For example, in the field of consciousness. “We must educate the population and make them realize that in the event of an earthquake, It is not good to leave the house. All the people who died in it Lorca (Murcia) In 2011 they did it in the street. “If your house isn’t damaged, you don’t have to go out,” says Jesús Ibáñez, who also calls for more training.

It also emphasizes the need to protect buildings. Newer artifacts don’t necessarily cause problems, but older, more vulnerable artifacts do. Ibanez believes it is relatively easy to protect them, if there is the will (and in some cases, the money). “In Lorca, the roofs of churches that had not been well restored fell away, with wooden-frame roofs remaining… It must be restored well Since this is expensive, what is sometimes done is just cosmetic, enhancing the infrastructure without further ado.

On the other hand, in old houses and apartments, there is an obligation to inspect them periodically, Kind of real estate ITV Which many owners prefer not to pass through. “They may think it’s a trick, but it’s essential. If we have any doubts, we should conduct that review, and we, as users, should care about our security. “It’s something we haven’t learned either,” Ibanez concludes.