Ballot box volatility and the phenomenon of third place in the Chilean elections

The road to the presidential elections scheduled for tomorrow in Chile was characterized by sudden fluctuations in opinion polls, especially on the right wing, and the stability of two figures in the first positions, the ruling party of Janet Jara and the right-wing party of José Antonio Cast.

However, the most striking phenomenon is the rise and struggle for third and fourth places, led by the liberal Johannes Kaiser and the center-right Evelyn Matthi.

Since the beginning of 2025, the general trend of polls (from consulting firms such as Cadem, Panel Ciudadano-UDD and Criteria) has shown the crystallization of preferred candidates to advance to the second round, despite internal movements.

Jara, Minister of Labor and official candidate of the Communist Party, has maintained a steady leadership with a range of support that often exceeds 25%, and by some recent measures has reached 30% to 31%. Her support is due to her image as a good manager within the government and her ability to mobilize voters from the left and center-left.

José Antonio Caste (Republican Party – Radical Right) remained the main competitor on the right, but his trend was towards gradual decline.

Although he was initially expected to be the opposition’s undisputed favorite, his support has fallen from highs near 30% to figures estimated in the most recently published opinion polls at 21% to 24%. His downfall is directly attributable to the rise of a rival in the same ideological sphere: the Tsar.

rise. But the main change in the panorama was not at the top, but rather in the erosion of the cast and the struggle for third place, which complicates the second round scenario for the competitor. The traditional right has been challenged by the emergence of a libertarian figure.

Representative Johannes Kaiser, from the National Libertarian Party and an admirer of Javier Maili, has shown a continuous and rapid rise in the opinion polls, as he went from being a remaining candidate to competing for an important place, and even placed himself in third place, surpassing Matthi in the latest measurements.

Kaiser represents the emergence of a liberal and ultra-conservative discourse in Chile, focused on radical deregulation, lower taxes, and defending security through a tough approach. His popularity is fueled by younger male voters disillusioned with traditional politics, attracting voters who previously leaned toward Caste or Franco Baresi.

Its rise shows the division of the right and the priority of security and immigration issues on its agenda. In final exit polls, Kaiser had about 15% voting intention.

Its main effect is to be a “minus factor” for José Antonio Cast, making it difficult to consolidate a unified right-wing vote and forcing Cast to shift more towards the far right to retain his base.

Evelyn Matthey, mayor of Providencia and traditional right-wing candidate, has seen a downward trend, giving up her historic second place and even third place.

Thanks to her administrative profile and experience (a former minister and former senator), she is trying to present herself as a “balance” and “moderate and responsible right-wing” candidate. His support rate ranged between 13% and 16%. Their main challenge is to stop voter flight toward more troublesome options like CAST and Kaiser and, at the same time, retain the centrist voter.

The final stage of the election campaign is defined by this tense dispute for third place, which will determine which opposition candidate has the most strength to challenge Jara in the inevitable runoff.