If a picture is worth a thousand words, the image that expresses the deepest crisis of Bolsonarianism is that of Jair Bolsonaro who admitted, in short and frank terms, to the violation of his electronic ankle bracelet: “I stopped it.” The scene summarizes a series of mistakes made by a leader who acts impulsively without measuring the consequences. He lacks strategic patience, which is why he has accumulated defeats and wasted his political capital.
It has been that way since the defeat at the ballot box – a setback that, brutal as it was, left Bolsonaro with nearly half the vote and significant political power. There is no need to go to January 8th to show how his volunteerism and improvisation undermined his legacy. These are serial mistakes that were exploited by opponents who are well aware of the phrase attributed to Napoleon: “Never interrupt your enemy when he makes a mistake.”
Thus, Bolsonaro and his family floundered, embroiled in improvisations, inappropriate reactions, and constant turmoil, preventing any solid strategic construction. The hasty call for the vigil – linked to the ankle bracelet violation – reinforced the sense of panic in the family. They seem to have realized that they no longer enjoy unlimited support from Donald Trump.
There the most dangerous strategic error was exposed: the belief that “ideological affinities” would drive US foreign policy. It has been overlooked that great powers are guided by their own interests. With 65% of Americans complaining of inflation, rolling back the tariffs was inevitable. Trump only had one regret when he learned about the closed prison: “Shame.” Life that goes on.
With the ankle bracelet violated, Bolsonaro has made it impossible, at least initially, to serve his sentence at home and plunged his movement into its deepest crisis since 2018, with a real risk of fragmentation of the right and center-right. The political sector is on alert: the next presidential race is already looming on the horizon.
The first signs of this astral hell are given. Since the arrest was announced, the difficulty of mobilizing Al Qaeda has become clear. Social networks, a crucial thermometer for Bolsonarians, reveal a decline in direct mentions of the former president. The low peak occurred only when there were some expectations of a legal shift, expectations that were, as we now know, sandcastles.
The “vigil” called by Flavio Bolsonaro gathered about a hundred people. The streets are quiet, without the noise caused by the arrest of the National Front forces – neither for nor against – which is a positive thing for a country that needs to breathe.
One of the last possible cards was to turn Bolsonaro into a martyr, an oppressed leader, capable of uniting the conservative movement without resorting to outright extremism. But the release of the ankle bracelet video was devastating. The hypothesis that he acted in a psychotic episode may help legally, but it damages his political image. He doesn’t fit the authority figure he has tried to project over the years.
Another huge mistake – and perhaps the most self-destructive – was the riot in the Council chamber, which made the amnesty slogan politically unworkable. In an all-or-nothing logic, Bolsonaro and his sons ignored moderate phrases that could have guaranteed doses capable of reducing his sentence. By rejecting agreements and isolating potential allies, they deepened their legal weakness. Now, there will be no institutional climate to commute the sentences of those convicted on January 8 — and Bolsonaro may have squandered his last real chance at legal commutation.
This does not mean that the truth will disappear. The conservative camp will continue to exist, with many new trends and leaders. In the short term, presidential candidates express public solidarity with the former president so as not to alienate his most loyal voters. In practice, everyone will try to keep a wise distance. The political toxicity associated with Bolsonaro — amplified by imprisonment and moral exhaustion — makes it dangerous for any ambition to fully carry on his legacy. The tendency for them is to try to inherit their electoral spoils without their methods and without their extremist agenda.
The process that culminated in the arrest reveals not only the fall of a leader, but also the exhaustion of a strategy based on impulsiveness, constant confrontation, and the illusion that politics can be solved by external pressure or improvised gestures. Bolsonarianism is paying the price for its mistakes and, for the first time since 2018, appears to no longer be the center of gravity of the right. She will continue to live on, but perhaps without Bolsonaro as a bigger star.
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Hubert Alkeres is the President of the Paulista Education Academy.