The crisis that began in Santa Catarina with Caroline De Toni’s withdrawal from the Senate race is not just a local dispute, but rather affects the political chessboard at the national level, especially in the right-wing camp. Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) has been selected by Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to run for one of the state seats, while Jorginho Mello (PL) may have Esperidío Amin (PP) as his candidate for the other seat. Palfer’s data show that this movement led to a deeper rearrangement within the Bolsonarian ecosystem.
Palfer’s analysis of more than 100,000 public groups on WhatsApp and Telegram reveals that Bolsonaro and his family still dominate the digital discussion, appearing in 36.91% of mentions related to the topic of the political arrangement in Santa Catarina. The distribution of other mentions shows a more fragmented field, with Tarcísio de Freitas receiving 8.13% of mentions, followed by Nicolás Ferreira with 7.21%. These numbers confirm the emergence of new political authorities amid a debate about allies and traitors within the Bolsonarista movement.
Those directly involved in the Santa Catarina crisis also feature prominently. Esperidío Amin was mentioned in 2.55% of the letters, while Caroline De Toni was mentioned in 2.08%. For a state dispute, this is a large scale, and is a sign that the issue was soon nationalized. Anna Campagnolo, who has become a spokesperson for dissatisfaction with the party’s choice of Carlos Bolsonaro, appears at 1.17%, representing an increase in importance, so much so that she has become the target of attacks by Bolsonaro’s wing on the networks.
The crisis gained an extra layer when Bolsonaro’s family publicly responded to the criticism. Eduardo Bolsonaro posted a video accusing Campagnolo of lack of discipline. At other times, when allies questioned decisions made by the party leadership, the Bolsonian ecosystem responded in the same way, with moral content aimed at asserting family authority, salvaging old pamphlets and speeches with the aim of attacking reputations, questioning the loyalty of the “rebels,” and accusing them of treason.
Governor Jorginho Mello’s movement towards the PP and the consequent hollowing out of Carroll’s candidacy highlighted the difficulty of maintaining ideological discourse at the same time as political composition is essential to electoral conflict. In the groups monitored, content about “betrayal,” “ingratitude,” and “top-down interference” quickly emerged, supplemented by video clips, old prints, and out-of-context excerpts.
Even as the riots begin, Balver’s statements show that Bolsonaro and his family continue to lead the debate. However, there is a noticeable shift towards other names such as Nicolas Ferreira and Tarcisio de Freitas, who were mentioned more after their appearance on the Flow Podcast, along with Guilherme Dayret, furthering the public security agenda. It seems that the right, at the same time as it suffers from fragmentation, is training for a new axis of power, with other names occupying the center of discussions.
So the dispute in Santa Catarina is not just about a seat in the Senate. It is about who speaks the truth, who distributes prestige, and who has the ability to discipline the base. The question of Bolsonaro’s succession is already being debated, and these political movements are part of that process. The Bolsonaro family faces the challenge of maintaining internal cohesion in the party while trying to remain competitive in electoral politics. But what is more difficult is keeping the ideological base warm while allying with centrist parties.
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