Brazil gets support from Germany and France to reduce dependence on fossil fuels

Led by Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva, countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Denmark, Colombia and Kenya have indicated their support for trying to reach agreement on guidelines for a transition path away from fossil fuels.

So far, the idea of ​​a fossil fuel roadmap has largely been evolving outside the maze of negotiating rooms at the summit, according to people familiar with the matter.

One possibility being discussed is to include the plan in the final COP decision or key document, so that countries can work on it over the next year. A similar plan was adopted last year to expand climate finance.

— We support any decision to establish a roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels here in Belém, said Jochen Flasbarth, German State Secretary for Climate Affairs. – It will be a great sign, and I hope we achieve that.

A roadmap is a political and technical roadmap that includes points such as who does what, when, and with what resources. In other words, it is an attempt to put commitments on paper to reduce the use of fossil fuels, the main source of global warming.

The International Energy Agency on Wednesday issued a report citing growth in oil demand and the risk of global average temperature increasing well above the 1.5 degree Celsius ceiling set by the Paris Agreement.

The report estimates that under current conditions, oil demand will reach 113 million barrels per day in 2050, an increase of 13% compared to 2024. Growth will be mainly driven by emerging economies.

However, reaching a more realistic agreement on the transition away from fossil fuels still faces many hurdles — especially since some of the largest producers, such as Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states, have been encouraged by President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the landmark Paris Agreement and double oil, gas and coal production.

In parallel, Colombia is preparing a declaration that will be unveiled next week, a draft of which was seen by Bloomberg – which is still subject to changes. The document has already been signed by some island nations, hoping to create a critical mass.

It makes no sense to invest in dirty and inefficient models from the 20th century, Minister Marina Silva said on Tuesday, during a COP30 side event. We face challenges, but we need to make an effort for a just and planned transition to abandon dependence on fossil fuels.

The challenge will not only be to convince developing countries to avoid the traditional development model based on fossil fuels, but also to deal with potential pressure from the United States, especially after the Trump administration failed in efforts to impose the first flat carbon tax on shipping last month.