Government and private sector interlocutors are optimistic that the tariff reduction mentioned by Donald Trump could also include Brazilian coffee, although the country was not mentioned by name. Members of the Lula administration and its executives indicate that this measure will be part of the White House’s efforts to contain inflation in the United States and reduce the cost of imports of popular consumer products.
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In an interview with Fox News, Trump stated that there were “specific problems” in the US economy and indicated the possibility of lowering interest rates.
-We are doing well, this is the best economy we have ever had. The only thing (the only problem) is the meat. Beef is a little higher because (American) ranchers are doing well (with import restrictions). “Coffee, we’re going to reduce some tariffs and we’re going to bring in some coffee (that’s imported),” Trump said, adding that he would make “surgical” changes to tariffs and that the trajectory of prices in the United States was heading downward.
Executive Director of the Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA), Vinicius Estrella, believes Brazil could benefit if the US confirms a reduction in coffee tariffs. This possibility was mentioned by President Donald Trump on Tuesday, and confirmed on Wednesday by US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent, who said that customs duties on coffee and fruits should be reduced, in reference to reconsidering part of the tariff package imposed by the current government.
Trump’s tariffs affected a wide range of Brazilian products and services: in addition to coffee, orange juice, fruit, fish, and industrial machinery and equipment. The additional duties, of up to 50%, have reduced the competitiveness of Brazilian exporters in one of the world’s major markets.
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Despite this, Estrella believes that conditions are ripe for recovery. According to him, “other origins are more expensive than Brazil,” which leaves room for export recovery.
– International prices are rising, American stocks are low, and there is no availability of coffee from other origins in the required quantity. Brazil is ready to respond quickly if tariff relief is confirmed. He explained that Brazilian coffee has the quality and volume necessary to serve the American market, and what it lacks is a predictable business environment.
Market estimates indicate that Brazilian coffee would have accounted for a third of total consumption in the United States in 2024. With the tariffs, which took effect in August of this year, exports of the product to the United States fell by 53% in September 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with a total of 333 thousand bags.
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The United States is the world’s largest consumer of coffee, purchasing about 24 million bags annually. Brazil sent 8.1 million bags to the US market in 2024, generating revenues approaching US$2 billion.
As the sector tries to reorganize itself, the Brazilian government is seeking a broader understanding with Washington. In addition to negotiating an end to the additional tariffs, Brazil is seeking to cancel sanctions imposed on Brazilian citizens, including the Minister of the Federal Supreme Court, Alexandre de Moraes, and is trying to avoid new sanctions under Section 301 of the US Trade Act.
Section 301 is a tool that allows the US government to retaliate against countries whose practices it deems “unjustified or discriminatory” against US companies. The open investigation against Brazil covers topics such as digital commerce, financial services, payment methods, preferential rates and even the use of Pix as a means of instant payment. If the accusations are confirmed, new punitive measures may be taken, increasing trade tensions.
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