Director of Rafaela Capital Fernando CamusoHe spoke with Canal E and stressed the difficulties in fulfilling commitments with the IMF, the fragility of the swap program and the risks involved in unstable demand for the peso.
Fernando Camuso agreed with the critical diagnosis of the country’s external situation: “We are very far from our goalswith the IMF. We’re $13 billion awayLong and distant, compared to what was expected in principle.” That is why he predicted that a new application for exemption would be inevitable: “We rule it out There may be a waiver“.
Controversy with the “real claim”
In another case, he analyzed the official strategy of accumulating reserves only in the face of “real demand”: “I keep asking myself this question: What is real demand?” In the same vein, he stated that the seasonality of December could contribute to private sector or provincial dollar sales, but warned of the fragility of the concept: “If the private sector goes out to sell some dollars, Because it needs pesos due to seasonality Would you call this a real request?
Camuso warned that the relief is temporary: “This ends in March. Then, you again have demand instability in January.” In addition, he explained that the economy is operating with an extreme level of monetary constraints: “The level of monetary constraints and pressure It was very important. Now that’s economics You need weights“.
Industrial sector requirements
However, he warned that any flexibility would be very gradual: “It will be gradual. I think so The market is waiting for itHe also highlighted the concern of the industrial sector: “We see that The industrial sector requires some definitions“It is a sector where the equation regarding Argentine margins, productivity, salaries and cost levels is fierce.”
The interviewee stressed that the government will have to define a clearer exchange rate system: “We will have to have a clearer definition of the exchange rate.” In terms of what happens to the IMF target and accumulation of reserves. And also a definition Regarding any exchange program Starting this year.”
In the same vein, he considered the current ranges to lag behind inflation: “At 1% adjusted for inflation 2.3, 2.4 You’re falling behind little by littleHe stressed the role of currency accumulation: “Total power It will come as a result of the accumulation of reserves“.