The sudden decision to China suspends the import of approximately 69 thousand tons of Brazilian soybeans After revealing the alleged presence of Wheat contaminated with pesticides In inspected shipment coming from manufacturing plants Cargill, Louis-Dreyfus, CHS Agronigosio and 3Tentus, according to Her beans San Pablo, reopened the debate on competition in The international market and the position that Argentina can occupy in this new scenario. Added to this reference is another piece of information transmitted through global agricultural trade corridors: Versions that the Asian country was going to purchase between 10 and 15 additional ships of US soybeans for shipment in January. Experts he consulted Nation They agreed that China is more demanding in health controls and that Argentina could become a more important market if Brazil faces restrictions or the United States fails to place all the goods it hopes to sell to the Asian giant. Strictly speaking, as stated in the report seedSales are currently confirmed United States to China Its total production amounts to 1,939,000 tons, or 16.16% of Donald Trump’s government expectations.
Although these purchases have not been officially confirmed by the USDA (USDA)The question is how this combination of mistrust toward Brazil and the supposedly greater demand for the United States from China will affect Argentine exports.
In this sector, they agreed that the global council is moving, although there are still more rumors than certainties. If one thing is clear, it is that this incident was a test of the health and quality standards that the Chinese demand, a point where… Argentina is working to maintain its position in an increasingly demanding market.
to lorena d’angelo, Market analyst consulting company az group, The news caused “Surprise in the market” Since China has been importing entirely from Brazil to produce soybeans. With this panoramic picture, this can also generate pressure on prices so you can buy at lower values, he said.
“The price of soybeans in Brazil was at high levels because all the demand was transferred to China, and producers were not selling,” the expert said. “At this time of year, Brazil usually does not have the goods to supply soybean exports, because they are planted and there is little left without marketing.”
In this context, gustavo Edagoras, The President of the Chamber of Oil Industry of the Argentine Republic (CERA) and the Cereal Exporters Center (CEC) warned against this “China is becoming increasingly strict in phytosanitary and quality controls for the grains it imports, not just soybeans, but also corn and wheat.”
As explained by L nation, Argentina is strengthening its technical work with Senasa to ensure these requirements. He added: “We are trying all the time, together with Cinasa, to provide all the guarantees requested by the Chinese.” He pointed out.
Edagoras noted that the country has already achieved “Concrete shipments of soy flour, “They have passed all the corresponding phytosanitary and quality controls.” This information becomes relevant at a time when Brazil faces specific questions about its shipments. In this case, Edigoras said: “There was a particular problem with a shipment of wheat and the Chinese authorities took these stopping measures.”
The leader also noted that “there are expectations that now, at the beginning of the wheat harvest season, there can finally be shipments to the Chinese market and finally reach this market,” a long-awaited goal.
“It appears that the initial agreement reached by the United States with China will be implemented and the Asian country will begin purchasing American soybeans for its market,” the executive added.
Meanwhile, according to gustavo lopez, advisor agritrend, “There was talk that the Americans sold several cargoes, as many as 20 there was talk,” and some brokers mentioned “1,450,000 tons for December and the same number for January.” However, he said that after review Official system Export sales, “It appears at zero, so in theory there is nothing.”
The specialist recalled that last year, at this point, there were “about 6.5 million.” He said at the moment, “It’s still in rumors or comments, but there’s nothing concrete.”
D’Angelo He added: “There are some shipments that were announced yesterday from 10 ship sales, which could reach 600,000 tons. They have not been confirmed yet, but they show that they are benefiting from the purchase. But the impact of the ban on Brazilian soybeans will lead to lower prices, especially Brazilian ones, and an improvement in American prices.”
together The tense global market and the flow of rumors that determine decisions, Lopez explained The Argentine role may become more important If Brazil faces restrictions or if the United States does not confirm expected volumes. Argentina may close with total grain sales “at approximately 12.5 million tons, which is somewhat as advertised,” the analyst said.
to d’angelo, Meanwhile, There is not much to take advantage of this opportunity, as a lot of soybeans were sold to China when the export duties were suspended: “In these 15 days, there are approximately 1 million tons of soybeans that will be shipped to China and the exporter is having difficulty obtaining those goods. For this reason, the price of soybeans yesterday was pushed up to $505,000, with very prompt delivery to meet those shipments.”
Regarding global prices, Lopez warned that if tangible sales to China do not appear, “Chicago will start to loosen up.” If Brazil reduces shipments, the impact could be adverse in the domestic market: “The only country left is Argentina, so the local scene will heat up significantly.”
Guillermo Garcia, The grain market analyst considered it unlikely that the country’s export program would expand significantly: “The export program is unlikely to extend beyond the 12.2 million tonnes of the current crop.” He explained. This number matches “Accumulation of Foreign Sales Certificates (DJVE) included with the tranche issued at Zero Export Rights (DEX).