China has committed, for the first time in history, to reduce absolute emissions of greenhouse gases. With new targets introduced by the country at the United Nations, through leader Xi Jinping, the country now requires a 7% to 10% net reduction in emissions compared to peak (the highest level of emissions).
Ahead of the new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC, the name given to each country’s commitment to the Paris Agreement), China set its targets based on emissions intensity, setting reductions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP).
This type of target, which aims to decarbonize the economy, allows absolute emissions to continue to increase, while preventing the climate target from reducing economic growth. The method controls the emissions intensity of GDP (gross domestic product), not the total volume of gases emitted into the atmosphere.
An example of how China tends to use this resource also appears in its domestic climate targets, published every five years alongside its overall development plan.
One of the internal goals of the current plan is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 18% between 2021 and 2025 compared to 2020. An analysis by the Center for Green Finance and Development shows that even if the country achieves this result by the end of this year, its total carbon dioxide emissions2 It will still have increased by about 10%.
Now, with new NDCs, the world’s leading carbon dioxide emitter has committed to reducing absolute emissions compared to the peak the Chinese government estimates before 2030.
Studies confirm that the peak should actually occur before 2030, but there is no consensus on the exact year.
The work, published in the journal Nature Communications and signed by researchers from Chinese universities and climate research centres, predicts a peak in carbon dioxide emissions2 Between 2028 and 2029.
Another study, in the journal Environmental Science and Technology, suggests a scenario in which carbon dioxide peaks2 It was possible to reach it in 2024, and remain on the plateau for a few years.
According to Professor Michael Davidson, of the School of Global Politics and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego, absolute values can only be calculated after the peak has been reached.
“China’s emissions likely peaked and fluctuated around a plateau before declining,” he says. “Since the goal is to reach the maximum level, this value will not be converted into an absolute number until the peak is reached. This is noteworthy because this is the first time China has committed to reducing emissions in absolute terms.”
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