At the beginning of US operations in the Caribbean off the Venezuelan coast, the Cuban Foreign Minister said Bruno Rodriguez He warned that under the pretext of confronting drug smuggling, the United States is deploying dozens of ships and about 10,000 soldiers in the region. “Re-impose their hegemony over America”.
This warning appeared to be little more than a show of solidarity with Nicolas Maduro’s government Recognizing the impact that the destabilization and eventual fall of the Venezuelan regime could have on the region and especially on the communist island.
“If Chavismo falls, Castroism will lose its most important geopolitical and energy pillars.”The blogger said in an interview with LA NACION. Yoani SanchezWho runs the opposition website 14ymedio She still lives in Havana despite the regime’s pressure and threats against her and her journalist husband Reynaldo Escobar.
“Every ship belonging to the Venezuelan oil company PDVSA that does not arrive in Cuba translates into longer power outages and less transportation.. Although the government tries to pretend to be self-sufficient, the truth is that we depend on Venezuela in the most important area: FuelHe added.
In fact, Cuba needs about 125,000 barrels of oil per day. But it produces only 40,000. Under Hugo Chavez, especially between 2005 and 2013, Caracas sent between 90,000 and 120,000 barrels per day to Havana.
Cuban specialist Oscar Grandio Moraguezauthor of the last book I’d better not be silent. Notes on the Transition in Cuba, He agreed with Sánchez that the Castro regime would depend on crude oil sent by Caracas.
The historian and international political relations graduate, who has been living in exile in Mexico since 1994, told Los Angeles Nacion: “Despite the decline in Venezuelan oil production and shipping, the 32,000 barrels arriving now are vital to avoiding power outages and keeping the state apparatus working.”
“If Maduro falls, Cuba will lose this vital flow,” Grandio Moraguez warned. Which forces us to look for alternatives such as Mexican oil, which, however, cannot provide the quantities that Caracas offers.. He added: “Otherwise, we will be forced to resort to expensive options such as Russia or international markets, which would exacerbate inflation, shortages and social discontent.”
But despite the dire predictions, this will not be the first crisis that the Cuban Revolution will survive in its nearly 67-year lifespan. And away from speculation in recent years, in particular After the death of Fidel Castro in 2016 or the social outbreak in 2021However, the island continues to fall into freefall with its economic, social and human rights decline, with no regime change in sight.
Even in this context, the charm of nature remains a destination for tourists. 2.2 million foreign visitors arrived in Cuba last year and contributed up to 80% of GDP.according to some estimates. but This number is a far cry from the 4.6 million tourists who arrived in 2018.
Self state Destroyed and dilapidated infrastructure This is not what a visitor is usually looking for, as there are many other options with similar natural beauty and better infrastructure in the rest of the Caribbean.
Yoani Sanchez’s story about daily life for Cubans is no less depressing.
“Power outages are already a chronic diseaseand has worsened in recent years. There are entire neighborhoods in Havana that spend 15 or 18 hours a day without electricity. Residents survive on candles bought from the informal market or on rechargeable lamps sent by exiles, food spoils in unlit refrigerators, and the night becomes a zone of anxiety and mosquitoes. He noted that the dengue and chikungunya epidemics are currently worsening, not only because of fuel shortages that prevent garbage collection and sanitation in cities, but also because of power outages that make protection against disease vectors difficult.
In this context, according to Sánchez, the government has had “the same rhetorical script for decades: Promises of new generating stations, plans for photovoltaic complexes, deferred maintenance dates, and successive justifications based on “unexpected” malfunctions.“.
The question that arises is: Why is such a crisis not enough of an incentive to topple the regime?
“Repression remains effective, and mass migration also serves as an escape valve,” Sanchez said. Indeed, since the outbreak of 2021 Cuba recorded the largest mass exodus in its history: nearly one and a half million people in four years, more than 10% of the population.. (In a perverse irony, the $2 billion annually in remittances sent by exiles is also a huge relief to the regime and helps prevent the collapse of the Cuban economy.) “Demographic change directly affects the civic fabric and the potential for popular advocacy. Every young person who leaves is one less potential protester“The Cuban blogger added.
Whatever the regime has been ineffective in resolving the economic situation – historically blaming the North American blockade – it is able to improve its repressive mechanism, to the point that the United Nations this week placed it at the top of the global rankings: The country with the highest number of arbitrary arrests.
According to the conclusions of the United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention, with 93 cases documented over the past six years, Al Jazeera surpassed Egypt, which recorded 73 cases of arrest, thus becoming The country with the largest number of arrests for political and ideological reasons.
“The most serious case today is that of those detained on July 11, 2021. The price of that protest was very high: more than a thousand political prisonersSanchez warned that most of them are young men who have been sentenced to long prison terms without real evidence, and many of them were under 20 years old at the time of their arrest.
The long years of repression and one party also created a situation that distinguishes it from Venezuela in Cuba: The absence of political leaders and organizations that could be viable alternatives to power.
“If the Cuban regime eventually collapses, there will be a lack of organized, coordinated and strategic leadership within dissident sectors in Cuba and outside the island,” Grandio Moraguez admitted. “If the defection is not organized“Most likely, it will be sectors of the current regime or those linked to it in some way that will be able to seize power and reverse any democratic transition,” Grandio Moragüez concluded.