Private sector dollar deposits maintained their upward trajectory in November and reached level 1 35,540 million US dollarsAccording to official data. This figure represents the new maximum since exiting convertibility and represents a continuation of the increase observed in October, when the stock was just above US$35.1 billion.
The monthly jump means an increase close to $435 millionThis equates to an advance of about 1.2% compared to the previous level. Although this represents a moderate variation in percentage terms, its importance lies in the fact that the total volume of foreign currency deposits is already much higher than the values recorded in recent years and reinforces a trend that has remained confirmed since the middle of the year.
The movement confirms that in the context of changes in economic policy, a large portion of private sector dollars continues to circulate within the banking system. The dynamics of October showed that, far from the usual dollarization of portfolios in periods of greatest uncertainty, most funds remained on deposit and there was no significant withdrawal of banknotes. November data suggests this behavior will continue.
The October record was significant because it was the highest level in more than two decades. This number coincided with A Decrease in dollar loans For the private sector that It decreased by about $640 million and closed at about $18,250 million. Cut a series of several consecutive months of growth. This decline reflects, at least in part, a more conservative stance of both companies and financial entities when working with foreign currency credit.
For November, there is still no official data on dollar loans to determine whether the contraction in October was an isolated phenomenon or part of a longer-term trend. What can be confirmed is that the growth of deposits has not stopped and that the dollar base in the financial system continues to expand.
Historically, comparison allows us to measure the magnitude of the phenomenon. For many years, the development of dollar deposits has been characterized by fluctuations associated with episodes of tension in exchange rates and periods of greater stability. But the current levels clearly exceed the peaks reached in the previous stages.
Another relevant aspect is that although monthly behavior shows relatively limited increases, the accumulation during the second semester is significant. Every marginal progress on this high base has great weight in the formation of the financial system and in the availability of dollars deposited in local entities.
The consolidation of dollar deposits as one of the most dynamic components of the financial system raises questions about what might happen in the upcoming official publications. One of the focal points will be the development of demand for foreign currency credit, which usually acts as a complementary indicator of deposit behavior.
Another element to consider is the internal composition of the deposit stock. Official statements usually distinguish between demand deposits and time deposits, as well as between individual and corporate accounts. Without these details, only the total amount can be determined, but not the way it is distributed. Differences between these sectors can have an impact on liquidity, sensitivity to changes in expectations and the future behavior of deposits.
The tangible thing is that The month of November concluded with a new record for dollar depositsWhich extends the upward sequence that began months ago.