the High prices in butcher shops Recent weeks set the “floor” for inflation Above 2% Monthly for this month according to the first special estimates.
The CPI for October will be released this Wednesday, which is expected to be above 2% and similar to the 2.1% reported by Indec for September. Starting in January, the Statistics Authority will change the way it measures the pace of prices.
The impact of price increases on the most widely consumed cuts of meat will pressure the CPI in a way that leaves the index higher than expected in the central bank’s market expectations survey last Friday. The consensus of consulting companies and banks was for a price increase of 1.9% for this month and 2% for December.
Various consulting firms announced their first estimates of price increases in the first days of November. Analytics, for example registering an increase of 0.9% Weekly in Food & Drink in Greater Buenos Aires.
Of that total, 0.7% was explained in a single item: In those first days of November, the consulting firm detected increases of 2.4% in meat, the product with the largest increases ever. It was followed by fruits (1.6% per week), then vegetables (1.5%).
In the past four weeks, on average, there have been increases in food and beverages of 2.8%. The largest average increases over the past four weeks occurred in fruits (11.7%) and vegetables (4.4%). At the other extreme are fish and seafood (with a price drop of 0.7%). From this partial information, Analytica predicts that The consumer price index for this month will be 2.3%..
EconomicsFor its part, a higher price increase was recorded in that first week 1.1%. They agreed with Analytica on what the explanation should be. He stressed that “increases in the prices of meat and its derivatives emerged by (1.4%), and this is the category that has already witnessed increases in recent weeks (1.8% in the last weeks in October), driven by the rise in meat prices.”
On the other hand, vegetable products recorded an increase of 4.5% during the week, mainly due to lemons, onions and oranges. It is a very seasonal product, which explains why the price of tomatoes in the same week decreases by approximately 16%. “On average over the past four weeks, the cumulative increase in the basket has been 2.7%,” Ecofuse concluded.
Counselor Also discover EcoGo 1.1% of weekly inflation at the beginning of November, a significant jump from the 0.2% at which October ended. Regarding meat, they confirmed that “after several stable weeks, meat recorded an increase of 1.4%, driven by an increase in beef prices (2.5%), and we do not rule out new increases in the coming weeks.” For the full month of November, EcoGo expects the CPI to reach 2.5%.
Finally, LCG measured an inflation rate of 0.4% in food and beverages in the first week of the month. “This implies that average monthly inflation fell to 3%, after weeks of acceleration,” they stated.
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