economic, Natalia motelSpeaking with Canal E, he emphasized the Argentine economic scenario and warned that the government is “at a crossroads” characterized by a lack of reserves and a lack of confidence in the peso.
“Argentina is a dual-monetary economy,” Natalia Motil explained It needs a fairly large cushion of reserves to surviveToday, unfortunately, he does not have it This is the big problem facing the government“.
What is the extent of consolidation in the private sector?
He also stressed that “in recent months, the private sector’s hoarding of dollars has increased. We’re talking numbers between $25,000 million to $30,000 million“The hoarding in just a few months is historic.” According to him, this “generates a drain not only through imports and tourism, but we are talking about the private sector. Who continues to save in dollars And in front of the government Which, unfortunately, is unable to collect these dollars“.
For Motyl, the big challenge is determining “how to create a central bank To accumulate that necessary cushion of dollarswhether to be able to pay the debts owed, the principal and interest dues for the next year, as well To be able to continue to put that firepower against any shockIn this sense, he stressed that the government must decide “between liberalizing the exchange rate” or “dissatisfaction with economic activity.”
The complexities of accumulating dollars
In turn, he explained that “if the government wants to accumulate dollars through debt, then issuing debt in dollars, the relative price for traded and non-tradable goods It will lead to an increase in non-tradable goods. This will cause the exchange rate to rise which will inevitably occur It will lead to a return to economic activity.“.
On the other hand, the economist commented that “if they decide to buy dollars by issuing pesos, those pesos They will generate constant pressure Because the exchange rate is and inevitably an increase in the exchange rate. It will affect you later on the prices“.
He also considered that currently “we have mutual peace.” To the issue of elections“, but he warned that “as of next year we will go again There may be fluctuations in the exchange market“.
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