October 2025 ft. A Mixed economic outlookThis is according to the “first activity indicators” analyzed in the recent study conducted by the Innovation with Inclusion Foundation, which highlighted that four of the seven indicators that were monitored showed a positive variation compared to the previous month.
The main novelty of the month was the bounce Retail tradeWhich showed a +2.8% improvement in the seasonally adjusted monthly measure (m/m se). It was another driver buildingspecifically in the demand for basic inputs, with Cement offices Which grew by 5.5% compared to September. After excluding seasonal influence, growth was +5.1%.
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However, the report notes that overall activity remains challenging, especially when data is adjusted for seasonality. “When you exclude the seasonal effect, we see that Almost all analyzed indicators show negative monthly variations“.
According to the study, which tracks data provided by key sector chambers such as ACARA, ADEFA, CAME and Construya, The automobile sector was the most affected In monthly comparison.
Car sales Decreased sharply: 17.4% Compared to September. This trend was confirmed in the seasonally adjusted measure of sales to dealers, which registered a 14.5% decline. The report concludes that “the automotive sector witnessed a difficult month, with a decline in all its indicators.”
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in buildinghe The panorama is “divided”“While cement showed growth,… Index construction (which measures material sales) recorded a decrease of 2.2%.
Annual comparison: Increase in patenting
Despite the monthly challenges, most of the early activity indicators analyzed showed increases in… Variation between years.
sector Motorcycles led this growth With high patents Marked +32% In annual comparison, a total of 61,120 units per month.
the Automotive patents They also showed a Strong YoY increase of +16.9%. This sector has achieved cumulative growth of +55.1% so far this year compared to the same period in 2024.
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The construction sector also performed well on an annual basis, reaching Index construction registering an increase of 10.1% Cement consignments Growth +7.5%.
The exceptions to this positive year-on-year trend were: Car productionAnd he is Reduced -9.9% With respect to October 2024, and Retail salesWhich continued in the negative territory with a decrease of -1.4%.
The report also details A Significant increase in activity-related taxes: VAT (real) of the General Directorate of Taxes increased by +8.0% and tax on credits and receivables increased by +13.0% in monthly seasonally adjusted measurement.
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