The recent presidential and parliamentary elections achieved a high level of citizen participation, exceeding twelve million voters, and are the first since the return of democracy that relies on compulsory voting. The context of party fragmentation, divisions on the right, and the absence of centrist options for the first time – since 1989 – characterized the election campaign and the entire period leading up to the elections. Contrary to the expectations of most opinion polls, Janet Jara achieved a slight victory, with less than 27% of the votes, compared to the candidacy of José Antonio Cast, who received about 24%. The surprise of the day was the vote for Franco Baresi, who again, as in 2021, finished third – this time with more than 19% – increasing his support in both volume and percentage.
The vote received by the official candidate tends to coincide with citizens’ support for the current government administration. Less than 30% supported Jara, a percentage similar to the government’s approval, according to what polls systematically record. With the level of votes received by Jara, as well as other candidates belonging to the centre-left and the left respectively, such as Marco Enriquez Ominami and Eduardo Artes, who together failed to add 2%, their chances of being elected in the second round become almost impossible. In fact, Jara’s greatest performance was in the Santiago metropolitan area, where the right as a whole received more than 50% of the vote.
On the other hand, the panorama offers greater possibilities for the right, whether because of what the three candidates gathered, or because of the progress recorded in both chambers of Congress. Indeed, apart from the support provided by Johannes Kaiser and Matthi, the right obtains a majority in the House of Representatives, for the first time since the return to democracy, and a kind of parity in representation in the Senate. However, it does not achieve the 4/7 percentage required to reform the constitution, nor amend the basic constitutional laws, which will ultimately force a right-wing government to negotiate with the opposition on these matters.
In light of this scene, it is worth asking: How do we understand this new advance of the right? At the same time, what are its immediate expectations and political repercussions?
First, it is necessary to point out the mistakes and lack of self-criticism, whether in the current government or in the ruling parties, to amend the lost path after the failure of the first founding process, in 2022. During the electoral campaign, it was the right – especially the CAST – that was able to impose its own agenda, in terms of security, growth, and reducing unemployment, all of which are priority issues for citizens – as recorded in the majority of polls. The rest of the candidates contented themselves with incorporating these issues into the axes of their election campaigns, without presenting alternative proposals.
Second, we should add that the recent elections were preceded by allegations of corruption, acts of organized crime, an increase in unemployment, and a perception of skepticism, if not pessimism, regarding the future. Incidentally, such situations not only allow us to understand the result obtained by the ruling party, but also become challenges for the next government.
Thirdly, the fact that the current government did not take citizens’ security problems seriously. At first, he avoided the debate, or engaged in it under ideological bias, especially among representatives of the Communist Party’s alliance with the Extended Front (FA). On several occasions, security-related problems caused disagreements between these parties and the so-called “social democratic” parties.
Fourth: Organizational weakening of parties. This led to the fragmentation and stripping of political representation of its authority over specific regions. The division has tended to strengthen the two poles, left and right, to the point of causing the spread of the political center. It is therefore no coincidence that the parties most affected are those that were part of the former Christian Democratic Coalition, which currently enjoys low electoral support and a weak presence in both chambers of the National Congress.
Prior to the election, the campaign environment was characterized by frequent shifting in voter preferences, as recorded by public opinion polls. This was demonstrated by the results themselves, taking into account the position taken initially by the candidate of Chile Vamos, Evelyn Mathi. Moreover, there is no distinction between Offers The proposals presented by the various candidates did not allow us to clearly identify the level of distance between one option or another.
Jara’s performance had left her in first place, without any challengers to challenge her and claim to represent the center-left and the rest of the left. For the first time, a communist candidate was able to attract support from the Christian Democrats to her party. No matter how much she tried to distance herself from the government, she ultimately had to bear the costs of continuing to run. Worse still, there were clear signs of government intervention. Suffice it to mention the maneuver to extend the constitutional charge against the former Minister of Energy until after the elections, or to postpone the publication of the results of the National Social and Economic Profiling Survey (CASEN) that show progress or setbacks in reducing poverty.
The electoral contest has highlighted a powerful struggle for leadership and dominance within the right. With the passage of CAST to the second round and the progress witnessed by the Republican Party in both houses of Congress, it is clear that the latest elections mean the defeat of Chile Vamos, composed of the National Renewal Party (RN), the Independent Democratic Union (UDI) and the Political Evolution (Evopoli). The results allowed for a shift towards a more “radical” right, although it is also important to highlight that this latter sector derives from parties such as the National Front and the Christian Democratic Union. After all, the three right-wing candidates were relying on the past of Pinochet, or in the case of Mathe and Caste, figures who had supported the former dictator in the 1988 referendum.
Government spokeswoman Camila Vallejos referred to the recent elections as crucial to “consolidating democracy.” By his logic, Chilean democracy is strengthened by the victory of Pinochet’s heir and indigenous corporatism. This is a real paradox if we also take into account that the second round will take place on December 14, the same date as the first elections – presidential and parliamentary as well – that marked the return to democracy in 1989.
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