Honduras’ general elections, scheduled for Sunday, are taking place in an atmosphere of intense polarization, institutional distrust and widespread complaints of possible fraud.
The electoral scene is dominated by three figures representing the most historically influential parties and the current ruling party. Rexy Moncada, a center-left lawyer, is the candidate of the Freedom and Recovery Party, the party of current President Xiomara Castro. She held important positions in the government, including Minister of Defense and Finance.
Nasri Asfoura, from the centre-right, belongs to the National Party and is supported by Donald Trump. Politician and construction businessman, he was mayor of Tegucigalpa and a presidential candidate in 2021. |
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Salvador Nasrallah, a centre-right opposition figure, represents the Liberal Party. He is a famous engineer and TV presenter. He was previously a candidate and allied with Libre in 2021.
Polls and scenario. The latest opinion polls point to a very close race and a technical tie scenario between the two main contenders, which is exacerbating tensions, especially in light of the lack of a vote in Honduras.
In the Central American country, elections are decided by a simple majority of votes. The candidate who receives the largest number of votes wins, without having to reach an absolute majority (more than 50%).
Some polls show a panoramic picture in which voters are divided into three very similar blocs: Nasri Asfoura, about 31%; Rexy Moncada and Salvador Nasrallah 30%.
Other analyzes indicated that although the race is close, Moncada is the candidate with the “best citizen rating” in terms of public opinion, while Asfoura and Nasrallah are competing for opposition votes.
Distrust. The electoral process is surrounded by a high degree of conflict that affects the perceived legitimacy of the outcome. There are many sources of stress.
First, there are ongoing struggles and conflicts between members of the National Electoral Council, who are divided according to party affiliations. This creates an institutional crisis in the body charged with organizing and supervising elections, which affects the concept of neutrality.
On the other hand, the opposition parties (National Party and Liberal Party) launched complaints of possible fraud even before the vote, accusing the ruling party (Liber) of trying to maintain power at any cost or exerting pressure on the electoral authorities.
International organizations such as the European Union and Human Rights Watch have expressed concern about developments that could undermine electoral institutions and the transparency of the process.
Moreover, what generates fear and frustration are complaints about the interference of pro-government armed forces. Sixteen years after carrying out the right-wing coup that overthrew Manuel Zelaya, husband of Xiomara Castro – an ally of Nicolas Maduro – the army is now close to the presidential family.
A few weeks ago, the armed forces asked the National Electoral Council to see the minutes to verify the vote count, even though the constitution only authorizes them to guard electoral materials.
Ana María Méndez, Central America director at the Washington Office for Latin American Affairs (WOLA), said that “it is worrying because they are currently answering to the president” and this “task overrun” would put the elections “in a very negative scenario.”
Although rejected by the National Electoral Council, the request raised fears that the military would intervene on behalf of Libre if allegations of fraud emerged on Sunday, and even more so in the absence of an independent arbitrator, since the National Electoral Council is completely politicized.