Andre Esteves, founder and CEO of BTG Pactual, says he considers Bolsa Família an important social program, but its current size is disproportionate to the Brazilian economy.
“I have been a supporter of Bolsa Família since the emergence of the program. It is very important, but it has grown a lot, becoming larger than France, Norway and Sweden, which does not correspond to the labor shortage (in the Brazilian labor market). It is very important, but it has grown a lot, becoming larger than France, Norway and Sweden, which does not correspond to the labor shortage (in the Brazilian labor market). It is very important,” the banker said during an event held at the Milken Institute, on Monday (10).
Esteves said a fiscal adjustment of about 2% of GDP (gross domestic product) is necessary for interest rates to remain in the single digits in the country.
“The central bank follows the script, it’s almost an agent of the AI. There’s not a lot of volunteering, it’s just modeling,” Esteves said.
He added: “The interest rate is very high. Brazil did not deserve 15%, but the rate will start to fall in January. The most important thing is how low it will be and this depends on the fiscal policy of the next government. Ideally, fiscal and monetary are more aligned. We need 2% of GDP in fiscal adjustment and I do not see difficulty in doing this. We have very high expenditures.”
However, regarding the trade war, the banker considers the behavior in negotiations with the United States to cancel the 50% surcharge to be correct, but it highlights the actions of companies.
“The private sector needs to continue to wear that hat of playing a geopolitically important role, and explaining how we can be important, by providing food and energy,” Esteves said.
He says that he sees this moment as favorable for Brazil, given the availability of cheap green energy in the country amid the wave of artificial intelligence.
“We have to follow our calling. There is no sense in setting up a chip factory. We can be the relevant infrastructure provider. If we play the game right, we can meet this global need.”
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