Europe managed to reduce In record time Reliance on Russian gas After the invasion of Ukraine, a strategic shift was made that seemed impossible a few years ago. Through the REPowerEU plan, the European Union has succeeded in diversifying its sources of supply, creating new infrastructure, and adopting adaptations that have allowed it to overcome the energy crisis, however uncomfortable it may be.
However, while that front was dissolving, another, deeper fragility was silently strengthening: growth Dependence on critical mineralsEssential inputs to the twenty-first century economy.
Europe is no longer dependent on Russian gas, but what is its new vulnerability?
Richard Holtom, an executive at Trafigura, raised the alarm in an article in the Financial Times. According to his analysis. Europe had given up on the risks of Russian gas, then slid into a more structural challenge: its massive vulnerability in mineral supply chains. He sums it up in a powerful statement: Without these materials (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and rare earths), there are no semiconductors, renewable energies, military equipment, or artificial intelligence.
The problem has two layers. The first is the continuing loss of industrial capacity to process minerals on European soil. No new refining complex has been built since the 1990s, and in the past decade about a third of existing complexes have been closed or downsized. The second, and most obvious, is The huge concentration of global refining is in China. The Asian country controls between 70% and 90% of the global energy to process many basic metals. While Europe has backed down, Beijing has promoted a deliberate strategy to accommodate this key link.
The numbers speak for themselves. A meta-analysis published in Springer Nature revealed that the EU does not produce even a large sample of… Gallium, germanium, vanadium or rare earths. It barely covers small parts of Lithium (0.1%), cobalt (0.5%), nickel (1%) or natural graphite. In some cases, accreditation is practically absolute. This same study warns that society’s goal of covering at least 10% of its needs with vital raw materials by 2030 is directly “unrealistic” for the majority of these minerals.
How will demand for minerals grow in the coming years?
Added to this structural weakness is a factor that further exacerbates the situation: Demand for metals will rise dramatically between six and fifteen times between now and 2050 Due to the electrification of transport, the expansion of renewable energies and the unstoppable progress in digitalization. Europe needs more minerals than ever at a time when it is less able to produce or refine them.
The impact is already being felt in your industry. The European steel industry is at a critical moment due to the avalanche of heavily subsidized Chinese steel and tariffs imposed by the United States. The chemical sector, one of the historical pillars of the continental industrial fabric, is experiencing an even more serious decline: plant closures, declining investments, and an increasingly widespread diagnosis of “deindustrialization.”
It is difficult to ignore the irony. Europe seeks to fully electrify its economy, but it does not control the materials essential to achieve this. Wind turbines are 85% recyclable, but almost no one does. Expanding solar panels generates waste whose use is still limited. Each turbine or battery relies on minerals that the European Union must almost entirely import.
Added to this is a geopolitical problem. China is no longer just a dominant supplierRather, it is an actor who uses these materials as a tool for strategic pressure. Last year, censorship was tightened Export of rare earths, gallium, germanium and antimonyWhich led to higher prices and forced some European factories to reduce or stop their activity. The barriers to import licenses require a level of industrial detail that even European governments themselves do not have about their companies. This asymmetry generates a subtle but effective form of coercion: administrative delay, alternating controls, and diplomatic pressure. He who depends obeys.
Faced with this scenario, Brussels has begun to respond, although many experts assert that it is doing so too late. Before the end of the year, the European Commission will present the RESourceEU plan, which aims to secure supplies, create strategic reserves, strengthen agreements with partner countries, and relaunch mining and refining within the bloc. A European center for vital raw materials will also be added, which will be responsible for coordinating purchases, monitoring risks, and centralizing artificial intelligence.
The Community Action Program for 2026, under the slogan “Europe’s Moment of Independence”, sets out Access to raw materials is the focus of its sovereign strategy. But the difficulties are many. Establishing strategic reserves faces logistical and political challenges: some materials have a short shelf life, others require specific storage conditions, and in many cases Europe will inevitably have to buy them from China.
Will Europe be able to build its mineral sovereignty in time?
Inland mining is not an instant solution either. Although there are relevant reserves within the continent, social opposition, bureaucracy and slow licensing slow down projects that can take decades.
Meanwhile, The United States is moving faster. With its strong alliances with Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea, and with its strong financial reach to secure strategic minerals, Washington has the advantage. The risk for Europe is that the window to diversify suppliers is closing as tensions with China increase.
Europe has managed to get rid of Russian gas, but now it is moving through a maze of minerals on which its industrial, energy, technological and military independence depends. The question is no longer whether he will be able to build that sovereignty, but whether he will be able to do so in time. In a world where metals are power tools, being late can have a very high cost.
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