The head of German diplomacy, Johan Wadevoll (CDU), could not have chosen a better time to make substantive comments about the role German foreign policy plays in this rapidly changing world. The situation surrounding a potential peace agreement in Russia’s war against Ukraine is changing almost by the hour.
So, at the Berlin Foreign Policy Forum, organized by the Körber Foundation, Wadiful was immediately asked about his assessment of recent reports about a meeting between Russian and American envoys in the UAE. European countries were not present. However, they affect the status of negotiations.
The politician from the conservative Christian Democratic Union said, “It is positive that talks are finally taking place. And that a mechanism has been started that could lead to the end of this terrible war. We are playing a role and contributing.”
Wadfall criticizes Russia’s “imperialism and aggression.”
This sentiment has also been echoed in European capitals in recent days: the original 28-point plan to end the war, put forward by the United States and largely in line with Russian interests, appears to have been scrapped. But it is still unclear what will happen next. In his speech, Wadfall reiterated that Ukraine’s fate has far-reaching consequences for the future of Europe.
Wadfall insisted that “imperial and aggressive” Russia was not only planning to subjugate Ukraine, but had had other plans for a long time. “Our intelligence services are telling us firmly: At the very least, Russia is creating the option of war against NATO. This will happen no later than 2029. The threat posed by Russia is not a distant concern; it is already a reality.” He stressed that this is evident in the continuous flying of drones and electronic attacks.
But the German Foreign Minister spoke relatively moderately about the American government. Viewing Russia, the instigator of the conflict, is essential to resolving the Ukrainian crisis. According to Wadeful, Russia is completely unwilling to even engage in dialogue.
In the case of the United States, even under a Donald Trump presidency, and despite all the confusion, it will be very different: “That’s exactly what we already know about the United States: Sometimes they approach solving these kind of problems in unconventional ways. Then they are surprisingly flexible.” The German Foreign Minister said that there is a possibility that negotiations will begin gradually.
72% of Germans support the rearmament of the German army
But the current US administration may also feel challenged when Wadfall speaks of the crisis of multilateralism: the willingness to engage in cooperative international cooperation is declining, and the “binding force of international law” is eroding in many areas. Instead, a basic position emerges that “it is not the force of law that is decisive, but rather force as a synonym for law.”
This is a very scary worldview, and the fear it generates is also reflected in the results of a study commissioned by the Korber Foundation. The study examined Germans’ views on important foreign policy issues.
The polling institute Forsa polled about 1,500 German voters over the age of 18 who are eligible to vote. In the study, a clear majority of 72% expressed support for doubling German defense spending over the next ten years in the face of increasing threats.
Only 20% of Germans believe that Putin is interested in peace
This also coincides with the government’s plans: with the majority of the former Bundestag, the current ruling parties, the Conservatives (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats (SPD), together with the Green Party, decided in mid-March to create a special €500 billion fund for rearmament. However, another result from the Forsa poll almost contradicts this: 61% of respondents reject a military leadership role for Germany in Europe.
Nearly four years after the war began, German support for Ukraine, which has been attacked by Russia, still enjoys a clear majority of 59%. If a peace agreement is reached that European forces can secure, 56% prefer Germany’s participation. However, a clear majority doubts whether Russian President Putin is interested in peace. Only 20% think so.
The reputation of the United States and Israel declines sharply
When Germans are asked about the direction of foreign policy, clear differences emerge between East and West. In the former West Germany, 51% support Germany’s greater involvement in international crises, compared to only 35% in the former East Germany.
The numbers, which reflect the views of the two countries with which all German governments have maintained close relations until now, can almost be considered dramatic: only 26% of respondents say that the United States remains Germany’s most important partner. Only 38% of respondents see Germany as a special obligation to Israel because of its historical responsibility resulting from the Holocaust.
(Sand/L)
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