SANTIAGO, Chile.- Some jokingly call them the “Germania Battalion,” a reference to their German surnames and direct, tough manner. We are The three right-wing candidates Who are seeking a place in the second round of Chile’s presidential elections: Jose Antonio Castfrom the Republican Party (PR); Evelyn MattheyFrom the Independent Democratic Union (UDI); and Johannes Kaiserfrom the National Liberal Party (PNL).
“There is no nickname in South America or Latin America that is laughable,” José Muñoz, a worker working in the sun renovating Baquedano Square, told LA NACIÓN with a laugh. “It makes you insecure.”
On the other side of the political spectrum, crossing into the runoff for Janet Jara – a Communist Party member and standard-bearer of the left, who has already won the primaries – looks like a very likely scenario, according to experts and pollsters. Therefore, for many analysts, this election is going well “The great fundamental right.”.
The latest poll conducted by Plaza Pública Cadem before the ban (October 26) reinforces this reading: Jara led with 30%, followed by Cast with 22%.. He was followed by Kaiser (15%), Matthi (14%), and Franco Baresi (12%), the People’s Party candidate. Informal polls spread these days indicate similar percentages.
However, although polls show Jara as the winner in the first round, the picture changes completely in the final run-off.
“Jara has a guaranteed minimum that would allow him to go to the second round and even the possibility of doing so in the first place, given the fragmentation of opposition candidates. But also She has a significant ceiling: all metrics show her losing, even to the Kaiser, a very right-wing candidate.“, says Rodrigo Arellano, Vice Dean of the Faculty of Government of the Universidad del Desarrolo (UDD), in an interview with LA NACION.
“I would say that any of the three right-wing candidates who make it to the second round will be the next president of Chile.”Cristobal Bellolio, an academic at the Adolfo Ibáñez University (UAI) School of Management, agrees.
In this scenario, analysts agree that the voter shift to the right responds to a combination of factors. First of all, Jara carries a double burden: Her struggle in the Communist Party, at the same time, positioned her as a candidate for the ruling party. It is no coincidence that Jara announced in the final phase of the campaign that, if elected, she would leave her struggle in the Communist Party, at the same time as she tried to distance herself from President Gabriel Buric.
But the more decisive point is another: today the security and economic situation dominate Chileans’ concerns, and in both areas right-wing candidates are presenting proposals that are seen as more realistic and effective. Stronger speech against crime.
“Here they are worse than they were in Caracas,” Maximiliano Emilio, 38, a Venezuelan app driver who has already suffered two attempts to steal his car since arriving in Santiago, told LA NACION, although he managed to thwart them thanks to a remote circuit breaker.
The feeling of insecurity is reaching record levels. According to the National Urban Citizen Security Survey (Enusc) 2024, 87.7% of Chileans believe that crime has increased in the past year. The 2024 Citizen Peace Index reveals that 32.8% of homes experienced a burglary or attempted robbery during the past six months, while 27.4% reported “extreme fear.” Moreover, a study conducted by the University of San Sebastian indicates that 76.8% of those surveyed have changed some daily habits for safety – Such as stopping using your cell phone on the street – a behavior recognized by 68.2% of those consulted.
“Do not go out at night”, “This area is no longer passable”, “Be careful when walking there”. These warnings are repeated over and over again among Chileans, and even political figures are amplifying them: a few months ago, CAST’s chief advisor, Cristian Valenzuela, stated that he could no longer run because he was at risk of assault.
In this context, the three main right-wing candidates – regardless of whether they represent the centre-right, the conservative right, or the more extreme right – They engage in particularly strident rhetoric on security matters.
Matthi (72 years old) is considered the most moderate figure in this sector. The political heir to Sebastián Pinera, who has had an extensive career – MP, senator, minister and mayor – has even tried to win the votes of those nostalgic for the centre-left Christian Democratic Coalition. “He tried to be an attractive figure for the widows of the Christian Democratic Coalition, and for those who come from the center or the center left and are not willing to vote for a communist candidacy; that is why he makes so many winks towards these voters,” Bellolio explains.
However, this moderation is weakened when talking about security. Mathey has promised to close the border and expel migrants serving sentences in Chilean prisons, and warned in the recent presidential debate that criminals would be waiting if she reached La Moneda. “Prison or cemetery”.
Last night, surrounded by flag-waving supporters wearing wigs and yellow vests — a nod to a viral photo of the former mayor taken in 2019 — Mathie opened her closing campaign speech by focusing on security. “The first thing we will do is restore security. I have seen and felt the fear in Chilean families. Chileans long for streets and neighborhoods where they can live in peace, Without fear, and without crime and drug trafficking controlling every corner. Without fear of their children falling into drugs or being recruited as soldiers for drug traffickers“, he stated.
For his part, Cast represents – as Bellolio explains – the right that until recently, It clearly resembles expressions that have appeared in other parts of the world: “What Miley represents in Argentina, or Bolsonaro in Brazil, or Trump in the United States, or what he represents in Europe Vox in Spain, or the AfD in Germany, or Le Pen in France. And someone basically defined Cast as that.”
Yet, throughout the past year — in his third presidential campaign, after being eliminated in the first round in 2017 and losing a runoff to Buric in 2021 — Cast He sought a strategic turn. “She toned down her programmatic platform, toned down her rhetoric specifically to reduce resistance, especially among young women,” Bellolio says. “In moderation and Abandoning what they call in Argentina “the cultural battle,” he practically said: “I will focus on security, the fight against crime, illegal immigration, and the economy, and I will forget the cultural battle.”“.
This exodus left The void was quickly filled by the Kaiser. “The other side is that, by forgetting the cultural battle, the Tsar somehow gave those most passionate and bizarre epics: “The anti-vaxxer, the one who denies climate change, the one who wants to leave the United Nations, the 2030 Agenda, the one who talks about cultural Marxism… all this is a world that Argentina knows very well.”“, says the academician UAI. “At first it was thought that this was a marginal sector, which is an eccentric expression; But Kaiser started to grow and ended up becoming a real threat to Kast and also to Mathy, who until a few months ago had been more strongly featured in third place.
However, everything indicates that Kast remains in a better position to advance to the runoff. “He maintains this image of purity, of someone who has not yet been tested,” says Gabriel Negrito, a professor in the Department of Social Sciences at Carlos III University in Madrid. “Neither he nor his party have governed, nor have they passed through the executive branch or the presidency. I think this works to his advantage while limiting the appeal of a more overtly subversive option, such as the one represented by the Tsar.”
After security and migration, the economy completes the platform of interest. Although growth this year showed a slight improvement – with GDP expected to reach 2.5% – Chile has suffered nearly a decade of recession: Low investment, low productivity, political uncertainty after the explosion, the impact of organized crime on activity, weak international context, slow and bureaucratic state.
In this area, Kast proposes “revitalizing the economy, lowering taxes, making it more efficient and reducing financial debt,” Negrito says, in a more classic neoliberal style. This contrasts with Jara’s proposals to raise the minimum wage to 750,000 Chilean pesos and improve pensions, which, although attractive to a large portion of voters, are considered by many to be financially difficult to adhere to and which Without corresponding improvements in productivity, investment or economic growth, it can have negative effects.
Analysts say the return of mandatory voting also explains part of the momentum on the right. Forced participation Sectors that remained on the sidelines in previous sessions returned to the ballot boxes: Disillusioned voters, who are tired of traditional politics and critical of the direction taken by governments after the outbreak of social ills. This universe – heterogeneous, volatile and marked by frustration – found in Kast and Kaiser two characters capable of channeling this discomfort.
Finally, even the weight of the dictatorship – ever-present in Chilean politics and traditionally a factor against the right – appears to have a more fragile role this time around. Although differences arise, e.g The Tsar promised to pardon the prisoners of Punta Bioco“The figure of (Augusto) Pinochet will always be present, but for electoral purposes, in fact, this division that has been so clear since the presidential elections of the 1990s until the second Piñera government, will be broken on this occasion. Suffice it to add the voting intention of the three or four candidates who are from the opposition and which amounts to about 60%, and this already breaks the 44% that Pinochet obtained in the elections,” Arellano explains. Referendum of 1988. So, here, the right undoubtedly added new voters.
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