German intelligence services, like those of other European countries, They have been warning about the possibility of full-scale war in Europe for at least two years. They fear that if Ukraine falls, Russia will continue to move toward the center of the continent. This is the main reason for the increase in military spending in almost all of Europe, and this is an opportunity for re-industrialization that the bloc’s main industrialization engine wants to take advantage of.
Germany is designing a ten-year plan To practically convert its industrial capacity to dual (civilian and military). Tanks could depart from where train cars depart within months if the situation in Europe worsens in the military sphere.
It’s not about doing the same thing as always, adding more public money, it’s about prioritizing spending and mobilizing not just the big defense companies, But for hundreds of small and medium companies. The plan, designed more by technology and economic experts than the military, begins by moving 10% of the country’s military spending to high-end technology next year to raise that rate to 30% in 2030.
The focus will be on software, drones, anti-drone defense, and artificial intelligence And long-range capabilities that mobilize innovation that also serves civilian use: space tools and hypersonic devices. Germany will acquire weapons that today only France and the United Kingdom have in Europe: hypersonic missiles.
Germany wants to go fast. With the idea that perfection is the enemy of the possible, the plan calls for accelerating and mobilizing the productive system to improve the country’s defense even if mistakes are made due to excessive speed.
At the basis of the plan is the Mittelstand¸ The base of medium and small companies that form the backbone of industrial employment And innovation in the country for decades. There are thousands of companies that have traditionally dedicated themselves to serving as suppliers to large companies.
The other big step is to focus large civilian industry on military production. All this with two goals: The power of public authorities increased German industrial capacity And accelerate its operations so that when the time comes it will be converted into military production. In short: Let Volkswagen know that, if the country needs it, it can build armored personnel carriers within months like it makes cars today.
The plan also plays into the idea of European strategic autonomy. Europe realizes that it must make its security independent Its prosperity is under the American security umbrella, and it has become independent these years from cheap Russian energy. To this end, European industry, led by Germany, must be able to increase its production, because today it is unable even easily to keep up with the pace at which Ukraine is burning weapons and ammunition.
The plan takes into account that the German labor market is not endless and that unemployment is almost non-existent. That’s why one short-term solution consists of Transferring employees from civil industry to military industry. Giant Rheinmetall, which mainly produces armored vehicles and ammunition, plans to hire 8,000 technicians in 2027, most of whom will come from automobile and machinery factories.
A complementary step is to get rid of surplus production through export. Germany has always been reluctant to export arms outside Europe As does France or the United Kingdom, but this could put an end to this plan. The military industry needs economies of scale, but its armed forces will not be able to afford everything, so it is necessary to sell abroad. Berlin now looks above all to countries such as India, Brazil or the kingdoms of the Persian Gulf. And you won’t just do traditional sales. It wants arms exchange agreements for what its economy needs: minerals and rare earths.
Germany is like other European countries. They draw lessons from how Ukraine defends itself from Russian attacks. Speed in production, agility, and distrust of all means of defense are important for large weapons programs, but also for innovation.
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