The government could end this year with significant progress on one of its key campaign promises: lowering inflation. At least that’s what economists advised Nationwhich They estimate that the price rise in November will range between 2.3% and 2.5%, while cumulative inflation in 2025 will not exceed 31%.. If confirmed, This would be the lowest number since the 24.8% recorded in 2017.
Analysts agree that the main difficulty in drilling 2% per month in November is The strong increase in the food sector – especially meat – and adjustments applied to regulated prices, such as gas, electricity and transportation prices. However, they consider it so The data will be positive The challenge is to maintain the downward trajectory in 2026 to close that year with an inflation rate below 20%.
Sebastian Meniscaldi, economist at consulting firm EcoGo, I calculated that inflation in November would be around 2.4%. “He was there Food prices also rose significantly, driven by meat, as did many regulated prices, such as electricity and transportation prices. In the latter case, there were regional and national adjustments, in addition to the increase in fuel prices. He pointed out that these factors explain a large part of this month’s inflationary pressures.
Meniscaldi also stressed that although in recent months it has not been possible to drill 2% again – something he does not expect in December – the year will end at a moderate level. “Our forecast is that inflation will close 2025 at around 31%, which would be a record low since 2017. From 2018 onwards, inflation has always been higher than these values. “It’s a very good record that Miley has made,” he said.
We must remember that this year in just four months the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was less than 2%: In May, by 1.5%; In June, by 1.6%; In July by 1.9%, and in August also by 1.9%.
For his part, Aldo Abram, director of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, expects a similar figure to November: 2.4%, “with some acceleration.” As he explained, “These double-digits above 2% we have seen since September are mainly due to the devaluation of the peso since mid-year, which will continue to have an impact in the coming months.”. Despite this, he confirmed that annual inflation will be the lowest since 2017 and expected this, With increased exchange stability, it could reach about 16% in 2026.
In the same vein, Lorenzo Sijaut Gravina, an economist at the consulting firm Equilibra, said, The inflation rate in November is expected to be equal to or higher than the 2.3% recorded in October. “This variation is driven by the strong rise in meat, especially beef, and some regulated prices that were revised significantly after the election,” he explained. The inflation rate is expected to reach above 30% by the end of the year.
Camillo Tiscornia, director of economic consultancy C&T, also revealed an inflation rate of 2.4% in November. “The increase in meat complicates a lot and will also affect the December index. He pointed out that it is an element that weighs a lot and explains a large part of the month’s acceleration.
According to Tiskronia, data for the last month of the year will largely depend on the development of meat. “In the last week of November, its price calmed down, but it should be monitored closely. If it moderates, December could be just under 2.4%.“, he stated. By the end of 2025, the consulting company expects Inflation is approaching 30%.
For its part, the consulting company Analytica expects that the consumer price index will reach 2.3% for November A slight decline in December, which will allow a closure General about 30%. Its director, Claudio Caprarulo, considered these data encouraging. “Especially if you take that into account It has been a very complex year on the exchange and fiscal front, leading to a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund and assistance from the US Treasury.“, he pointed out.
Caparolo stressed that the slowdown process is “consolidating.” Annual variation in December would be the lowest in the past seven years, thus returning to the 2010-2017 averageLooking to the future, he warned, “The challenge is to maintain low inflation within a more sustainable macroeconomic system, and socially as well.”
Economist Florencia Iragui, from the consulting firm LCG, estimated this The CPI for November is expected to reach 2.3%, with food and beverages accelerating. He added: “The average monthly inflation over the past four weeks for this item was 3.3% in our survey, which will contribute 0.9 percentage points to the month’s index. The already frequent increases in regulated prices will add nearly an additional half a percentage point to monthly inflation.”
For December, Iragi expects CPI to reach 2.5%. “The last month of the year is characterized by greater inflationary pressure due to seasonality due to bonus collection and vacation consumption. In this way, The year will end with a strong slowdown in inflation, moving from 117.8% to 30.9% annually from 2024 to 2025. This will be the lowest annual inflation rate since 2017.“, confirmed the economist.
The Imperia survey was not far from these expectations. Matthew Bornstein, an economist at that consulting firm, said so Inflation is expected to reach 2.3% in November and 30% at the end of the year. He, like his colleagues, noted that “the annual change will be the lowest since December 2017.”
In addition, Bornstein emphasized that the decline in inflation will continue next year. “Fiscal discipline, monetary tightening and economic openness are the pillars that control prices and inflation expectations. By 2026, the government will be faced with a choice: greater economic growth and lower inflation, or slower economic growth with a faster decline in prices.“, he concluded.