The decline in country risks, which this week Drill 600 bpyou expect that long awaited Argentina’s return to the international voluntary debt marketafter more than seven years of absence, is approaching. On the market there are different hypothesis About once, but in general they think it will happen at some point Less than six monthsWhile the amount required will depend mainly on current circumstances, debt maturities provide guidance.
that it A crucial event for raising dollars abroad And at least refinance upcoming debt maturities in foreign currency, because Argentina today does not have the resources necessary to meet the payments. however, It has a swap deal that it signed with the United StatesWhich represents the “insurance” of last resort, which will be activated in the event that it is not put on the market at the time of payment to bondholders and does not have sufficient reserves.
he Country dangerIt is an index that calculates the additional charge at which the nation borrows above rates in the United States, which today are about half the levels recorded three weeks ago, in the midst of political uncertainty, before the October elections. With the 600 points you have now set, you will need to return another 100 units or a little more to enter the international market by issuing debt at “reasonable” interest rates.less than 9% annually.
That is, according to analysts. It will be necessary for country risks to decline, at least, to an area of 500 basis points So that Argentina can return to the international voluntary debt market to raise dollars and refinance upcoming obligations in foreign currency. This will be the minimum necessary to come up with a new position. Since then, it’s gotten better, Because it means financing at lower interest rates.
Anticipate the moment of release in the market
“It seems that a return to the international market is not far away. It will depend on the rate they want to validate. I think they should check if interest rates go down, so the country risk should go down even more. Maybe we’ll have to wait Payment of the January bond maturity“With some private financing or cash, then we can believe that by July they will at least refinance the capital maturities.” Gabriel Camano.
In conversation with iProfessionalCaamaño asserts that perhaps at this moment Caputo’s priority is to move forward with the announced buyback of shorter-duration dollar debt securities, due in 2029 and 2030. The Minister’s goal will be to relieve pressure on short-term capital maturities and, based on the process, accelerate the return to the international voluntary debt market.
Gustavo Neivadirector of trader research, agrees that Caputo’s number one goal is… Buy back short bonds To reduce the amount owed. He doubts the market will launch before the January debt repayment and believes it will likely happen during the second quarter of next year. He states that “It “makes no sense” to do so now, with the country’s risk at 600 points. So this should be done at least in the 500 pip area to avoid paying such high rates.
He adds: “I think that if the government’s plan continues on this line, and economic activity is reactivated a little and the extraordinary sessions in Congress go well, with reforms progressing, they will likely test the international market during the first quarter of next year, as long as the country’s risks continue to pressure. There are good chances if everything continues on this line and no unexpected events appear.” Diego Martinez BurzacoCountry Director of Inviu, previously iProfessional.
Oxtine Maceiraof sailing, states that technically Caputo could hit the market today with a short chip. But because the obligations for the next two years are already covered by the swap, it will likely look for the right moment in terms of the risks faced by the country in order to reduce financing costs. It is estimated that the country’s risks could be in the range of 400 points or less, a level to which it could fall at the beginning of 2026 if fiscal discipline, exchange rate stability, and no external shocks occur.
How many dollars will Luis Caputo look for, another central point
Martin Generofrom Clave Bursátil, is estimated to be the first releases after returning to the international market rates will be around 8%Which is not considered an opportunity to collect dollars, as it is still relatively high. Therefore, he believes, in principle, that Kabuto will, at most, seek… Covering debt maturities in foreign currencyWhether in January or July In both cases, the value is $4.3 billion.
In conversation with iProfessionalMakeira agrees that logic suggests so The first issues on the international market aim to raise sufficient amounts to cover the upcoming maturity periods Capital and stakes positioned in Bonares and Globales securities (4.3 billion US dollars).
“We believe that in the first phase the release will be limited: We estimate between US$1,000 million and US$5,000 million. We see this most likely between the second and third quarters of next year. If the January payment goes through without incident, we expect there to be a debt buyback, which would lead to price pressure: Bonds that today are yielding 11% could start to fall to 8% or 9%.“, estimates Pablo Lazzatti, CEO of Insider Finance.
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