Once the usual turmoil in any pre-election process is overcome, the general feeling among analysts and financial professionals is that a phase of calm has entered for various exchange and fiscal variables.
Although it may seem like a contradiction, this scenario is conducive to obtaining interesting returns if the investment options are well chosen.
In this sense, those more conservative investors, who prioritize preserving the purchasing power of their capital, can benefit over the next six months from everything that comes from the aforementioned calm.
To reach this result, it is enough to analyze in detail what the financial experts who contribute their estimates to the so-called “Market Expectations Survey” or REM believe.
It must be remembered that the REM report is a monthly publication prepared by the central bank, which collects estimates from a large number of private consulting companies and financial entities and presents them in the form of a compilation. In this way, you can find out what the market “sentiments” are about the future development, for example, retail inflation, interest rates, exchange rate, activity level, unemployment, etc.
Specifically in the case of medium-term investments, it is interesting to observe how inflation and the performance of constant terms and the dollar could evolve, according to these actors, to draw some conclusions.
Consumer Price Index: For the period from the beginning of November to the end of April 2026, the cumulative inflation rate in the retail sector will range between 11.5% and 11.8%, with a peak in December due to seasonal issues and a slight downward trend later, reaching a minimum of 1.6% in the last month under analysis.
Fixed-term interest rate: This rate is expected to decline throughout the series, after the strong rise recorded in October. Between the points, it is estimated that the decrease will be one percentage point per month, moving from 3.3% to 2.3%. In this way, if each monthly return is capitalized, a cumulative return of about 17 percent will be reached.
Exchange rate: Considering that REM takes the wholesale dollar as a reference, the monthly average last October was 1,440 US dollars, and by the end of April 2026, it is estimated to reach about 1,582 US dollars, so the increase between the two extremes will be about 9.5 percent.
From these estimates, it can be concluded that over the next few months and into the fall, anyone who chooses to invest his money for a specified period, replenishing the principal plus interest month after month, can receive a return that exceeds the two “engines” that are used to compare returns: the inflation rate and the change in the dollar.
In fact, if the analysis were in terms of the CPI, the theoretical gain to be obtained using these criteria would be in the region of 5/5.5%, while if calculated taking the dollar as a reference, it would rise above 7% in just six months.
In this way, the so-called “carry trade” will be activated again, which is nothing more than an investment in one currency (the peso in this case) to obtain profits in another currency (the dollar).
However, it should be clear that this calculation is based on estimates and that any change in any of the variables may affect the final result.
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