the Ibovespa The bad mood of the New York Stock Exchanges followed and fell on Thursday (13). After the rise in Brazilian stocks stopped, the perception became that the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve Bank) may interrupt Interest rate cutting cycle The month of December caused a state of pessimism in global markets, which led to an intensification of the index’s losses throughout the trading session.
With increased risk aversion, Blue arrows The strength seen at the start of the business has been lost, while more negative balance sheets of listed companies have also affected the Brazilian Stock Exchange.
The 9.5% increase that Ibovespa accumulated as of Tuesday (11) also opened the way for profit taking. At the end of today’s trading, the index closed down by 0.30%, at 157,162 thousand points, after oscillating between 156,509 thousand points and 159,319 thousand points. The financial volume at the session amounted to R$22.6 billion on the index and R$28.9 billion on B3. In New York, the Dow Jones fell 1.65%, the S&P 500 lost 1.66%, while the Nasdaq fell 2.29%.
The most negative movement in the markets was influenced by the statements of US central bank directors, such as Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic and Beth Hammack, who defended maintaining interest rates at the current level. In this scenario, the market is quite divided regarding the continued decline in interest rates, as federal funds futures indicate. According to CME Group data, the probability of interest rates remaining between 3.75% and 4% is 50.6%, while the probability of interest rates falling in December is 49.4%.
Marcelo Carvelis, CIO of Avin Asset, believes that US interest rates remain at a very restrictive level, with the possibility of a further slowdown in the labor market in the medium and long term. He points out that the change of Fed directors in 2026, including the head of the monetary authority, Jerome Powell, leaves room for two or three cuts of 0.25 percentage points.
“US inflation has a stubborn element due to some factors, such as supply constraints in the labor market, the issue of tariffs, and the depreciation of the dollar globally,” says the executive. Even without official data after 43 days of “shutdown” (paralysis) of the US public sector, he notes that the feeling is that “the decline in employment could be reflected in higher rates.”
More negative balances affected stocks on Thursday, such as Banco do Brasil ON, which fell by 1.40%, after the institution announced a decline in its annual profits, under pressure from agribusiness. There was also a jump in the volume of credit provisions and default rates. Between July and September, BB delivered adjusted net profits of R$3.785 billion, stable in the quarterly comparison, but with a year-on-year decline of 60.2%.
“Fundamentals remain worrying, with deteriorating portfolio quality and rising default rates, even with an expanding agricultural portfolio and continued declines in coverage rates,” says partner and senior variable income analyst, Pedro Gonzaga. “Short-term defaults continue to increase significantly.”
A more pronounced reaction was observed in Hapvida common shares, which lost 42.2% to R$18.89. Jefferies says that the company’s third-quarter results confirmed the hypothesis of stopping net additions, increasing expenses, and increasing competition. The bank has a Neutral recommendation for the stock, with a target price of R$31.50.
Among the blue chips, Petrobras common and preferred shares rose by 0.90% and 0.43%, respectively. Vale ON lost 0.14%, while banking stocks rose, excluding BB: Itaú PN rose 0.40%, Bradesco PN rose 0.21% and BTG Pactual units rose 0.61%.
Afin’s Karvelis points out that concerns about the country’s financial situation and the electoral scenario in 2026 are making the House of Representatives cautious about Brazilian assets. It is reported that in 2027, the president-elect will have to face the deficit in public accounts.
“We could see a fourth term for Lula with more pro-market proposals, but I think it is difficult for that to happen. In any case, the financial crisis will come and someone will have to address it,” he points out.
Accordingly, he believes that there are three possible scenarios: the first is a change in the position of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and increased interest in the financial issue; The second, in which the government does not make structural changes, and the third, which Karvelis considers the ideal, is for the rotation of power.
“The stock market entered a favorable asymmetry,” he says. “As global flows rebalanced, emerging markets again faced small exposure and Brazil ended up receiving the flows.” “If there is a pro-market change, I think there is room for the stock market to rise and stand out among emerging markets.”
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