Inflation gave a slight respite in November, with a decline of one-tenth keeping it at 3%, according to advance data published by the National Institute of Statistics on Friday. This is the first time it has moderated since May, six months ago, and the path seems clear to repeat the scenario in December due to the so-called basic effect, given that the comparison with what happened 12 months ago, when it witnessed a strong rise, seems favourable.
Behind the slowdown in November lies above all lower electricity prices. While it drives the rise of food and non-alcoholic beverages. On a monthly basis, the rise in headline inflation was two-tenths, while core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, which are the most volatile items, was 2.6% in November, one-tenth higher than the October rate.
The November inflation statistics were highly anticipated, because they actually allow us to know how much pensions will rise, which will finally be revalued by 2.7% in 2026. This is because the average inflation in the twelve months between November of the current year and December of the previous year is taken as a reference for the calculation.
Although it reduces the distance somewhat, prices in Spain remain above the eurozone average, rising at a rate of 2.1% – pending November data – which is practically in line with the European Central Bank’s target. This good performance is affected by factors such as the price of a barrel of oil, which was 15% lower than it was a year ago, and fell by 5% in the past month alone. So is the development of currencies, with the euro strengthening against the dollar by 10% compared to 2024, making imports cheaper and tending to lower prices.
Despite all these favorable external factors, Spain is moving slower in the fight against inflation than its euro partners. Not just because of the complexities of reducing the cost of a shopping cart. Products such as diesel, so present in the Spanish car fleet, have become 7% more expensive since June and are on the verge of overtaking gasoline, according to the latest data from the European Petroleum Bulletin released on Thursday.
(Breaking news. There will be an update soon)