Iraq begins its election day with the economy and public services at the center of the debate

A total of 39,285 tables will be distributed to the electoral centers, which will be open to 20,063,773 people with the right to vote in the country, the Electoral Commission reported to the Iraqi News Agency, until six in the evening. (Local time, 4:00 PM Spanish Peninsula time).

Tuesday’s legislative elections in Iraq will partly reflect the reality of a country still plagued by war and the jihadist threat, and which has not quite resigned itself to serving as a regional pawn between the United States and Iran: Although Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish sectarianism still dominates voting trends, Iraqis are adamant in demanding minimum acceptable living conditions from the government, an important factor in elections in which the Shiite Coordination Framework bloc, which has assumed power for the prime minister, holds power. Muhammad Shiaa Al-SudaniHe starts as a favorite in the absence of the biggest winner in the last election, which is the cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr.

The influence of Iran, the major Shiite power in the region, on Iraqi politics represents the most prominent international aspect of these elections. It is translated twice, first at the political level through the aforementioned alliance, and then at the security level, where Washington’s influence can be better seen, as appeared in the recent conversation between the two countries. Sudanese US Secretary of State, Marco RubioWho urged the president to immediately stop the actions of the coalition of Shiite militias gathered in the Popular Mobilization Forces.

Baghdad considers the militias necessary to maintain internal control over the country, despite their tendency to excessive violence when suppressing demonstrations against the authorities, as happened in 2019 with the crushing of the “Tishreen” social movement. The United States directly considers them an armed extension of Iran. Many of its groups are subject to US sanctions, accused of organizing attacks against the remaining US military forces in Iraq and Syria, on orders from Tehran.

Al-Sudani has tried to limit his influence through timid efforts such as the dismissal of two commanders after a July attack on the Ministry of Agriculture headquarters, but such decisions contradict, behind closed doors, the efforts, so far unsuccessful, of the Coordination Framework to double its power through an initiative to transform the Popular Mobilization Forces into a fully independent security force.

A divided coalition

But there are deep divisions in the coordination framework, represented by the proxy war between Sudanese and a sub-coalition led by the former prime minister. Nouri Al-MalikiThe rule of law is the third most voted force in the recent 2021 elections. Al-Maliki He somehow endured criticism from the powerful Chest To boycott these elections: Corruption and abuse of power within Sudan’s government have become an intolerable obstacle to Iraq’s progress.

In addition, Atlantic Council experts point out that the rule of law has on numerous occasions criticized the poor state of public services during the current government, Al-Sudani’s relations with the new Sunni regime in Syria and the friendly relations between the Prime Minister and other Arab countries, which influential members of the armed forces consider hostile to Shiite sovereignty in Iraq.

SudaneseAware of the criticism, she has built her election campaign on practical achievements, calling for the creation of nearly 700,000 public sector jobs since she took power three years ago, in order to buy time to consolidate a reform program and prevent a repeat of the protests and violence that erupted in 2019. This ambitious program is specifically intended for Iraqis under the age of 25, who represent about 60% of the country’s population. (about 47 million) wants to redirect them towards the private sector.

He also wants to simplify regulations to attract more foreign investment, especially in non-oil sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture and tourism. He realizes all of this because he is the prime minister of the second largest oil producer in OPEC.

The future of alliances

The Construction and Development Sub-Alliance that leads Sudanese It is the most likely candidate to win a majority of the 329 seats in the Legislative Council, but under the Iraqi regime, no party can form a government alone, which involves a complex and often lengthy process of building coalitions.

Under the power-sharing agreement that was adopted after the American invasion in 2003 that overthrew the regime Saddam HusseinThe prime minister must be from the country’s Shiite majority, while the parliament’s presidency must be Sunni, and the presidency, a largely ceremonial position, is reserved for Kurds.

This complex picture will be partially revealed when nearly 21 million Iraqis eligible to vote on Tuesday cast their ballots for more than 7,750 candidates, nearly a third of whom are women. Initial participation in Sunday’s special vote, reserved for security forces, was encouraging: 82.4% of the approximately 1.3 million police and military personnel allowed to vote cast their ballots, a historic record. But the civilian population, which is not subject to the voting system, is another matter.

In this sense, observers do not completely rule out that attendance will end below the historic minimum of 41% in 2021, which means a real defeat for Iraq’s aspirations, and also constitutes the best example of voters’ indifference and skepticism about the country’s future.