Iraqis go to the polls on Tuesday (11) to choose a new parliament, amid modest expectations for change and strong international monitoring. With more than 21 million voters called, the elections are being held under the direct influence of Tehran and Washington, and could redefine the internal political balance after years of instability, corruption, and unstable public services. The absence of Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr shapes the electoral scenario.
Iraqis go to the polls on Tuesday (11) to choose a new parliament, amid modest expectations for change and strong international monitoring. With more than 21 million voters called, the elections are being held under the direct influence of Tehran and Washington, and could redefine the internal political balance after years of instability, corruption, and unstable public services. The absence of Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr shapes the electoral scenario.
Iraq will hold its parliamentary elections on Tuesday (11), calling on more than 21.4 million voters to choose 329 representatives who will fill the Legislative Council for the next four years. Despite relative stability in recent years, the climate is characterized by uncertainty among residents, who live with unstable infrastructure, failing public services, and rampant corruption.
Since the early hours of the morning, local political leaders have cast their votes in Baghdad, but popular participation has been low. Reporters from foreign agencies reported that the streets were empty and voting centers with little movement, even in major cities.
“Everyone is spending a lot of money to win votes, which shows that my vote has value,” said Muhammad Mahdi, a government employee in Baghdad.
The electoral system allocates 25% of seats to women and nine to religious minorities. Of the more than 7,700 registered candidates, only 75 are independent, which reinforces the perception that the dispute favors the major parties.
The division of power follows the post-2003 model: the president is always Kurdish, the prime minister is Shiite, and the speaker of parliament is Sunni.
The current Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, is seeking re-election with the support of a coalition of Shia parties linked to Iran. He took office in 2022 after a political impasse that lasted more than a year. Al-Sudani promoted the reconstruction and anti-corruption agenda, trying to achieve balance in relations with Tehran and Washington.
The absence of Muqtada al-Sadr, the Shiite leader who won the 2021 elections but resigned from Parliament after failing to form a government, is one of the factors that make the elections unpredictable. Al-Sadr described the elections as “dominated by sectarian and partisan interests” and called for a boycott by his followers.
In the autonomous Kurdistan region, conflict remains intense between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (PDK) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (UPK). Among the Sunnis, former Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi appears to be the favourite.
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Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iraq has witnessed six parliamentary elections. The political system has been redesigned to ensure representation among Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds, but divisions and behind-the-scenes deals still dominate the process.
The Sadrist Bloc, a political group led by influential Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, won the 2021 elections, but an attempt to form a majority government failed, leading to the mass resignation of MPs associated with him. This opened the way for the pro-Iran alliance known as the “Coordinating Framework,” which brought Sudanese to power.
The current elections are taking place in the context of regional tension. Iran, which has been weakened after its strategic losses in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Syria, seeks to maintain its influence in Iraq.
The United States, in turn, maintains about 2,500 soldiers in the country and is pressing for the disarmament of pro-Iranian militias. The Trump administration has appointed a special envoy, Mark Savaya, who is calling for an Iraq free of “malign foreign interference.”
Popular participation has declined with each election. In 2021, the rate was just 41%. Disillusionment with politics, especially among young people, is fueled by broken promises, unemployment, and lack of basic services despite the country’s oil wealth.
The election result could redefine internal and external alliances, affect the balance between religious and ethnic blocs, and determine the future of the Iranian and American presence in the country.
With Agence France-Presse
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