The soybean market has suddenly changed pace after an upbeat start, indicating a correction that many analysts describe as a classic scenario “They bought the rumor and sold the news.”.
The USDA confirmed this in the past three days Sales of more than 1.58 million tons of US soybeans to Chinaalthough it is estimated in the market that the real total already exceeds 3 million tons.
However, most operators agree that even if China ends up purchasing the 12 million tons allocated for the 2025/2026 campaign,USDA export forecasts will also have to be revised downward. That would leave US ending inventories on an upward trajectory and pose an increasing drag on prices.
At the same time, Global supply continues to increase. South America is on track for a new record production, while preliminary estimates are circulating in the United States that expect 3 to 4 million acres — about 1.2 to 1.6 million hectares — of soybeans to be added by 2026 compared to 2025.
If the weather is good, US production could comfortably exceed demandEspecially if China’s appetite for American soybeans has already reached its ceiling.
In this scenario, The scope of internal crushing in the United States is expanding It remains the main way to absorb the surplus. Although it could balance the market in the long term, some analysts consider that it is still too early to feel this effect.
China moves soybean market: Between cancellation rumors and massive purchases, the market is losing support
The soybean market has had a rough week tags found, Affected by releases related to adjustments in Chinese procurement and the technical context that maintains downward pressure on the entire complex.
During last week’s closure Activity from China was limitedwith rumors about Cancel shipments previously purchased in ArgentinaWhich would be a clear bullish signal for the Chicago soybean price.
However, operators point this out last week China has received more than 40 shipments of American soybeans and about 10 Brazilian shipmentsIn addition to the continuation of the request for offers during the last round of the week, according to market data.
At the same time, Chinese Ministry of Agriculture It announced a new decline in stock of pig broodstock, indicating an adjustment process in the pork industry, while the relevant quantities of meals were negotiated for immediate delivery at the country’s ports.
In the United States, the physical market showed mixed behaviors: Soybeans have remained steady in the processing industryThe Gulf region remained stable and more flour offers emerged, but oil remained under pressure.
in the future, The prices of the three products of the soybean complex continued to declineaccompanied by a climate of caution and bearish bias. Energy added an additional pressure factor, with oil and diesel prices declining amid expectations of diplomatic progress between Ukraine and Russia.
China breaks historic record for soybean stocks while South America dominates global flow
Soybean stocks at Chinese ports have reached a record high 10.3 million tons in the first week of November, surpassing previous records and reflecting a strong influx of goods from South America. Analysts suggest that a combination of less modern inland processing and a very high flow of shipments from Brazil and Argentina explains this increase.
The abundance of supply keeps flour prices close to the minimum Industry margins are in negative territory in China, which reinforces the idea that US soybeans are not essential to the Chinese market at the present time.
The specialists consulted highlight that this supply pattern not only responds to the trade war, but represents a new structural dynamic. Brazil sent 82 million tons to China this year and Argentina 8 millionvolumes are much higher than in 2023.
According to analysts, even without trade tensions, China would have continued to buy mostly from South AmericaWhich means lower FOB prices and better profit margins for both Chinese and South American industries.
This structural change redefines origin-to-origin competition and adjusts the global balance of soybean trade.
China’s purchases are boosting the market, but uncertainty remains
Despite China’s continued interest in American soybeans, as 52 shipments have been purchased since the Xi-Trump meeting, The pace of purchases is still insufficient to meet the 12 million tons committed.
The market continues to evaluate fundamentals while closely monitoring the movements of funds, which have adjusted their positions after the recent price increases. Traders remain cautiousWe await more information on demand, while the climate conditions in South America and the development of the financial market are factors that will continue to determine the direction of prices in the short and medium term.
The week begins with a general mood of caution Among investors and operators, who remain attentive to the publication of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), scheduled for Tuesday (25), amid the approaching Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday (27) in the United States.
last week, Risk aversion Its impact was strong, sending commodity futures down 1.4%, reflecting concern about global macroeconomic developments.