Putin’s winning binary strategy and Zelensky’s ruin
Written by Marcelo Zero*
Zelensky is not in a good position. It is between the “Steel Sword” and the “Golden Sword”.
First, Zelensky lost the war, a war he could have ended as early as April 2022, under more favorable conditions than now and with far fewer casualties.
However, Boris Johnson, Biden and the outdated and woefully outdated North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) persuaded him to continue a useless war, with the promise of unconditional support and certain victory.
He broke his face. Despite resistance and (failed) attempts at deceptionAfter the attack, Ukraine found itself embroiled in a war of attrition (War of attrition), resulting in the loss of more territory and an irreparable and irreplaceable number of soldiers.
It has lost 24% of its territory (and is still losing) and no longer has the ability to compensate for the dead and those who are rendered unable to serve.
Objectivist and minimally informed analysts like Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer have long known this fact. But Macron and others did not receive the “clear memo.”
In addition to losing the war with Russia, Zelensky is losing the internal war. As we know, a major corruption scandal broke out in Ukraine. Foreign aid funds intended to secure the Zaporizhya plant and solve serious energy problems were reportedly diverted.
Tens of millions of dollars, which ended up, for example, in the bathroom of Timur Mendic, a friend of Zelensky and the director of the energy company Energoatom. It ended up, more specifically, in a gold, or gold-plated, toilet.
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This bathtub has become a great symbol of the corruption of Zelensky’s government, angering the Ukrainian people, angry at embezzlement of this scale, totaling US$100 million, in wartime.
Thus, Zelensky is trapped between Russia’s iron sword and the golden dove of domestic corruption.
You have to negotiate.
Well, the points of agreement outlined so far (28) impose a political defeat on Ukraine and NATO, but they seem realistic and inevitable.
Moreover, as I will explain later, the agreement is of great importance to the United States and Trump. In fact, it is essentially a bilateral agreement between Russia and the United States, in which Zelensky and NATO participate as secondary players.
On the issue of territory, for example, which is the most sensitive issue, the agreement provides for the recognition of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk as de facto Russian territories, including by the United States.
Kherson and Zaporizhia will be “frozen” along the contact line, which means de facto recognition of Russian-controlled areas up to the front line.
However, Russia will give up other agreed-upon areas it controls outside the five regions.
Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of the Donetsk Oblast region they currently control, and this withdrawal area will be considered a neutral, demilitarized zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.
In the field of guarantees, a comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All the ambiguities and frictions of the past thirty years will be considered resolved.
It is expected, on the one hand, that Russia will not invade neighboring countries, and on the other hand, that NATO will not expand further.
Moreover, a dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for military de-escalation, ensuring global security and increasing opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees from the United States.
The agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and ensured by the Peace Council chaired by President Donald J. Trump. Penalties will be imposed in case of violations.
Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy and invited to return to the G8. Lifting sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
But the most interesting points of the agreement relate to the economic aspects, which put American interests at the center. These are the points that must make the agreement a reality.
The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement with Russia for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, Arctic rare earth extraction projects, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
In addition, Russia’s frozen funds will be used as follows: $100 billion of frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The United States will receive 50% of the profits from this initiative.
Europe will add $100 billion to increase the volume of investments available for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
The rest of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle to implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund aims to strengthen relations and increase common interests to create a strong incentive “not to return to conflict.”
In other words, the United States under Trump intends to gain significantly from the agreement, from the reconstruction of Ukraine, and from a broad future investment treaty with Russia. This is the crucial point that the ignorant media does not highlight.
The Trump administration and Trump personally have a broad interest in the success of the deal. Just as they are interested in rebuilding Gaza.
Therefore, the pressure on Zelensky will be very strong. If you impose too many conditions, you are “undermining” a big deal that involves a great deal of American economic interests.
We doubt that Zelensky, who has been weakened politically and defeated militarily, will be able to amend the agreement that appears to be of great importance to the United States. Most likely, he will have to swallow the basic terms already negotiated between Putin and Trump.
Putin, the expert strategist, knew how to exploit this economic context and his military superiority, which he obtained with great patience and intelligence. Zelensky, a geopolitical fool, has fallen for the soft talk of Europe and NATO.
He will sit on the “golden throne.”
*Marcelo zero He is a sociologist and specialist in international relations.
This article does not necessarily represent an opinion Fiumundo.