In conversation with Channel E, Miguel PonceThe foreign trade specialist warned of the risks and opportunities that might be involved in reaching a final trade agreement between Argentina and the United States, in light of global tensions and economic pressures.
“There is nothing more anti-free trade than the policy of tariffs.”
The analyst pointed out that the idea of a bilateral agreement is not new. “A year ago they were talking about the exact same thing, and even then I said it was two-pronged nonsense.“, he pointed out.
according to Ponce“,”On the Argentine side, this would imply leaving Mercosur, which would require reaching an impossible parliamentary agreement; On the part of the United States, this was nonsense because Trump based his policy on the trade war“.
In a critical tone, he insisted that “There is nothing more anti-free trade than tariff policyHe stressed that any treaty must be proposed by Mercosur and not by an individual country.
The specialist explained that the issue returned to the scene after the statements of former official Antonio Aracre, who suggested that a “historic” agreement between the two countries would be announced this week. but, Ponce He asked for caution:The moment is not ripe for negotiating trade agreements; We are economically interfering and dependent on both the US Treasury and JPMorgan“, to caution.
Furthermore, he questioned the political opportunity for negotiation, stating that “The State Department, headed by the former JPMorgan official, has just announced a trip to WashingtonAnd as he said,It shows how attached we are to outside interests“.
Which sectors could win and who could lose
Ponce They analyzed the potential chapters of the agreement and the sectors that could benefit from it. “There will be a gradual reduction in customs tariffs; Some products can go to zero in five or ten yearsHe explained. Among the sectors with potential impact, he mentioned steel, aluminium, lemons, pears, apples, wine, olive oil and meat, with his prediction.Increasing the share of meat exempt from customs duties from 20,000 to 80,000 tons“.
However, he also warned of the counterparts Washington would ask for: “The United States will request preferential access to machinery, chemical products, technology, and auto parts, as well as the immediate lifting of restrictions on shifting profits from North American companies.“, detailed.
In this sense, he explained that the American Chamber of Commerce – the American chamber of companies in Argentina – has been demanding this since the current government took office.
With regard to non-tariff barriers, Ponce He highlighted: “For many years, Argentine lemons were turned off by the California lobby; We’ll see if that changes now.“.
Finally, he warned that any move of this kind “This will inevitably be conditional on the geopolitical conflict between China and the United StatesHe concluded:We will have to see how China will react if the signing of a trade agreement that gives preferences to the United States is finally announced.“.
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