Money and power have one thing in common: whoever has one or both must choose between investing or spending. The problem begins when those who think they are investing are actually wasting money. Javier Miley He faces that dilemma.
There is a fundamental difference between money and power: the former can be precisely calculated; On the other hand, political power is difficult to calculate and its duration depends on factors that are often beyond the control of its owner.
Far from opening up the government, Miley chose to refocus it and favored limited exchange of services to add the few votes he lacked to implement structural reforms.
So Miley faces a more complex problem than the financial one. Although he has never before been able to manage so much political capital, the tools he has sought to confront the remaining two years of his term are to reaffirm the standard that was inaugurated on his first day in government.
As president, he does not accept allies who have not previously joined as members of his political force. You can’t be half liberal and half Macrist. Under that standard, he would seek re-election within two years.
After the elections, there was a new development in the same logic. The government team relies almost entirely on Karina Miley While his brother is almost exclusively concerned with monitoring the course of the economy and maintaining friendly relations with voters. All political decisions depend on the approval of the General Secretariat, starting with the acceptance or rejection of people and proposals.
Kareena is the first official in a long time and in several governments who is not a fuse for the president. Not only that. Strategic areas such as espionage or relations with justice entered the purview of the presidential sister. They have been displaced and will continue to be displaced Santiago Caputo Towards functions more similar to those that existed originally: communication strategy.
new defense minister, General Carlos Prestithe first active military officer to hold that position in more than four decades, owes his status to the relationship he established with Karina Miley regarding the president’s security.
Patricia Bullrich He managed to leave at his place Alejandra Monteoleva In the Ministry of Security based on his good relationship with Karina and in recognition of his decision to bet all his cards on Miley at the expense of his former affiliation with Macrismo.
Miley is closer to controlling Congress and further away from engaging in costly negotiations with governors
Instead of opening up the government, Miley chose to refocus it. Instead of proposing a permanent agreement with potential partners, he favored a limited exchange of services to add to the few votes he lacked in support of structural reforms.
Fortunately, Miley will not share the outcome of this new phase with anyone as Argentines await the benefits of their enormous personal efforts to direct the country’s financial distortions.
In those first months of his presidency, acting on the first possible impulse but with a tiny parliamentary minority, he imposed on Congress a set of reforms that were intended more to set course than to cooperate with the inflation stabilization plan.
The president is entering the second half of his term with resources he never imagined he would obtain. Miley’s all-or-nothing bet on a comeback Donald Trump The rescue plan that the Republican President presented to the White House did not include the possibility of implementing a rescue plan like the one that the Republican President made available when the rise in the exchange rate against the peso generated enormous doubts about his ability to overcome the situation.
Tripling the number of senators and increasing the number of representatives by two and a half times is higher than the original calculations. Miley is closer to controlling Congress and further away from engaging in costly negotiations with governors.
Miley and Caputo are not immune to the mistakes they made in the exchange matters, which they later ran into due to the danger of a return to Peronism-Kerschnerism.
Diego SantilliOn his tours, the new Minister of the Interior encounters provincial leaders who have a list of demands and generally accept that they have to give Millie much more than they are demanding.
There is a risk of losing political capital in this inevitable exchange of aid requested by state governors and approval of the budget – the first of the liberal era – and labor and tax reforms. This is a less severe risk than facing those local leaders who became emboldened after the government’s electoral defeat.
With the exception of Kirchner’s four governors (if one can be mentioned), Axel Kiselov), starting with the Peronist leaders, everyone is willing to conclude agreements that include providing the necessary resources to vote in favor of the reforms. There is an important detail, which is a certain guarantee that their re-election projects in their regions will not be attacked from now on.
Among the list of demands are mandatory payments to the provinces, which Minister Luis Caputo postponed without an appointment. This accumulation is already knocking on the court’s door in many cases and is becoming unsustainable.
The old tactic of addressing each governor individually without allowing them to make coordinated claims replaces the strict sequence of votes in Congress that is structured as a form of pressure to achieve what Santilli is now negotiating on a case-by-case basis.
The Minister can hardly collect applications in the provinces and transfer them to Casa Rosada and the Ministry of Economy. This he did without luck Guillermo FrancosWho exhausted his ability as a negotiator by refusing to give the rulers a single penny.
The rule of not spending remains for fear of repeating the financial deficit. But a new equation is beginning to gain a certain amount of complexity: the relationship between what is given to obtain the votes necessary for the structural reforms that must come into effect in the first half of next year.
It’s not the only problem for Mellie and Kabuto. They are not immune to the mistakes they made in matters of exchange, which they later hastened because of the danger of a return to Peronism and Kirchnerism.
This risk turned into a motivation to vote Liberal is the result of unique circumstances. It is the same exception that explains the United States’ intervention to stop the rise of its currency, the dollar, among Argentines.
Extending the great moment and making it permanent requires that the outcomes of the economy be recognizable by those who have renewed their commitment to Miley. Big challenge.