José Giri, the eighth president in ten years, took office as Peru’s president one month ago, with a mandate to provide institutional support for the country until elections are held in April next year. The Peruvians will then have the opportunity to elect their ninth national team … But it remains to be seen whether the count will end there: partisan division, the insistence of some questionable leaders to remain in politics, and the continuing emergence of corruption linked to previous administrations suggest that it will take Peru some time to usher in an era of solid stability. The surprising thing is that despite everything, the country is doing well economically: society is working against the will of its politicians.
This decade of shocks began in mid-2016, when Pres Ollanta Humala He handed over the presidency to the economist Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. Due to corruption accusations, he was forced to relinquish his position after almost two years to his deputy, Martin VizcarraFor the same reason he had to be replaced by the President of Congress, Manuel Merino, who was later also replaced by the new President of the Chamber, Francisco Sagasti. In the 2021 elections, rural teacher Pedro Castillo won, precisely because he was far from Lima’s political life, but given the difficulty of navigating such turbulent waters, he wanted to suspend Congress, and that attempted coup elevated the vice president, Dina Bolwart, to office; She has now been replaced by Congress President, José Jarry.
All of this probably could have been avoided if the “anti-Fujimorista” vote had not been forced in 2016 and he had ruled once and for all. kiko fujimori, The daughter of the dictator In that election, as in the elections of 2011 and 2021, the leader of Popular Power was on the verge of receiving 50% of the votes in the second round: she did not win because very disparate sectors voted for the other candidate so that Fujimune would not become president, but she maintained in the unicameral Congress the power that torpedoed any success of the government’s alternative.
Popular power has lost its space and voting intention has been distributed among various parties, including the Popular Renewal Party led by Rafael López Aliaga, which in the past supported Kiko Fujimori and was Mayor of Lima in this legislature. In addition to running for president, he is also doing so as a vice presidential candidate, Mario VizcarraWho promised to pardon his brother accused of corruption. Former President Kuczynski, 87 years old, is running for the Senate (the Senate will be reconstituted) with the aim of achieving immunity, while the leader of Castillo’s party, Vladimir SironHe intends to run in the elections while he is a fugitive from justice. In the face of such a group, it is difficult to imagine that Peru will be able to turn the page on this period of political instability.
What is striking about Peru is that this entire operetta takes place in a national economic context of some solidity. Perhaps the second allows for the first: for politicians to bear their responsibility lightly, knowing that the country is not collapsing. The important point is that GDP grew by 3.3% in 2024, and this year it will grow by 2.9%, which is also higher than the average in the region; That the deficit and inflation are under control and that the debt does not exceed 32.1% of GDP, which is a very low number in the group of countries; Unemployment alone is slightly high, at 6.5% of the active population, but this is incomplete data in the context of the informal sector in Latin America.
Peru is not immune to changes in trend and from suffering the consequences of political division and polarization
The commitment to an open economy since the era of Alberto Fujimori has remained in place throughout the current quarter century, regardless of the government at each moment, which has ensured the continuity of the model and investments. However, with growing populism in the region seeing some return to state control, Peru is not immune to changes in trend and from suffering the consequences of political division and polarization.
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