Some keys to the elections:
Who goes to the polls? Opinion polls, at least before the ban begins on November 1, show Jara will come in first and Kast in second, so both will be in the second round in another month. Therefore, if this scenario does not happen on Sunday night, it will be surprising. Can Kaiser beat Kast?
The relative importance of arriving first. It is important to obtain the first majority, although this fact has no necessary connection with the second round. Everything indicates that Jara will get the highest percentage, which does not mean that he has a better chance of beating Kast in the runoff. It is expected that there will be a distance of between five and nine points between the first and second, so outside this range it will be considered eye-catching.
If the cast does not pass. In the unlikely scenario that Kast does not go to the runoff, but to the liberal czar, shifting votes from the right is not entirely guaranteed given the runoff.
The struggle for third and fourth places. The dispute for third and fourth places is open. A few weeks ago, it looked as if Mathy would finish third, but that picture has been thrown into doubt with Kaiser’s rise, which opinion polls began to show before November 1. If Kaiser, and not Matthei, remains in third place, it will be a huge blow to Chile Vamos, of the traditional right.
Second round. No opinion poll showed Jara winning over any of the right-wing candidates in the second round.
To go deeper into these keys and learn about others, read Rocío Montes’ article here.
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