The third quarter GDP, which will be released next Thursday, December 4, should confirm that the Brazilian economy has lost strength throughout 2025, but not enough to interrupt the sequence of positive results. Major financial institutions expect weak, although still positive, growth amid a resilient labor market and a still contractionary monetary policy environment, with interest rates rising to 15%.
IBGE announced Friday that the unemployment rate surprised favorably, once again, in the quarter ending in October, remaining lower than analysts expected: 5.4%, compared to the average estimate of 5.5%. Despite being the lowest in the historical series that began in 2012, Pnad data shows a slowdown in the labor market.
However, GDP continues to record a long string of quarters in the black: there will be 17 consecutive positive results on the margin and 19 in the year-over-year comparison, according to Macro 4 Intelligence.
The average forecast is about 0.1%. Santander and Itao expect a 0.2% increase compared to the second quarter, as does Macro 4 Intelligence. Bradesco 0.3%. Economist Andre Galado, of Análise Econômica, expects a more modest result of 0.1%. In the annual comparison, expectations converge with growth approaching 1.7%.
Despite the positive numbers, the situation is “clearly slowing down,” Gallardo highlights. The economy, which grew by 1.3% in the first quarter and 0.4% in the second quarter, advanced only between 0.1% and 0.2% between July and September, its weakest performance this year. However, GDP continues to record a long series of quarters in the black: there will be 17 consecutive positive results on the margin and 19 in the annual comparison, according to Macro 4.
On the supply side, the data must contain important nuances. Itao estimates that the industry grew by 1.6% in the year-over-year comparison, higher than the 1.1% recorded in the previous quarter. The services sector, which has supported the recovery cycle, is expected to show a loss of momentum, with an increase of 1.5% year-on-year, compared to 2.0% in the second quarter.
In agriculture, the movement is similar: the bank expects a slowdown from 10.1% to 6% over the annual period. This decline reflects a high base and a slower pace in some specific chains, after an exceptional first half of the year for the sector.
On the demand side, household consumption and investment are expected to be weaker. Itau’s forecast is that household consumption grew by 1.2% in the quarter, less than the 1.8% recorded between April and June. Investments, which increased by 4% in the second quarter, must have increased by only 2% year-on-year between July and September.
However, the labor market was a positive surprise, helping to maintain demand. The unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, reaching the lowest level in the historical series, a figure that, according to Andrei, strengthens the economy’s resilience even as the Selic rate reached its highest level in nearly 20 years.