says FGV-Ibre| The market remains favorable to workers and salaries continue to rise in Brazil

Although a Selleck At 15% annually, Brazil will end 2025 with Labor market Hot, even under pressure. He says the slowdown is “smooth.” Fernando de Hollanda Barbosa FilhoEconomist at the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV-Ibre).

October recorded a net opening of 85.1 thousand Vacancies With an official contract according to the general register of employed and unemployed persons (imprisoned), released on Thursday (27), a result that was lower than the average estimate of financial institutions, resource managers and consulting firms, which amounted to a net opening of 120 thousand vacancies, according to Value date. Although the result was not what was expected, according to the expert, it does not speak against official activity.

He confirms that “the market is still positive in the negotiating position for workers.” According to Barbosa Filho, Brazilians with a formal contract are experiencing a positive overall scenario of formal job creation, higher productivity wages, lower unemployment rates, and record on-demand dismissals, as described in Caged.

For him, the current labor market cycle is “very pro-labor”, with rising wages and a high level of mobility – as more people leave their jobs in search of better conditions. This dynamic enhances the consumption capacity of households and explains part of the flexibility of economic activity, despite the high interest rate environment.

Even with restrictive monetary policy and the closing of vacancies in sectors such as industry and agriculture, the economist highlights that the ongoing slowdown process is taking place gradually.

“The forecast is that the balance accumulated in 12 months will close in 2025 at around 1.2 million official vacancies – a strong figure, although lower than observed in recent years (…) The result is far from bad in the context of high interest rates,” says Barbosa Filho.

Barbosa Filho points out that the recent path of the sectors conforms to the seasonal pattern. He explains that it is normal for the industry to be strong between August and September, in preparation for production ChristmasFrom October onwards, recruitment will be reduced, he explains. “Now, the focus is shifting to services and trade, which will gain strength at the end of the year.” Therefore, the decline in the number of vacancies created in October should not be viewed in isolation, says the economist.

He adds that from the beginning of the year until now, the country will have created more than a million job opportunities, and this rules out any worrying scenario regarding formal work.

“Everything indicates that we should reach a record unemployment rate next year as well,” highlights Barbosa Filho.