Multiple tariff barriers imposed US against Brazil It could cost the country more than US$3 billion (about R$16.60 billion) annually exportswith the largest losses occurring on industry.
This is what was shown by a study conducted by the consulting company BMJ for the CNI (National Confederation of Industry), to which the report had access. Industrial products should account for 27.3% of losses imposed by tariffs.
“What is surprising is the impact (tariffs) could have on industrial exports,” said Wilbur Barral, co-founder of the British Medical Journal. “There is a view that a lot of things have been solved, but no. In fact, exports could lose $3 billion in one year, which would increase the (trade) deficit with the United States.”
According to the survey, which ended on Friday (21), the consolidated quarterly loss (from August to October 2025) reached US$767.85 million (about R$4.1 billion), while more severe tariffs were applied.
The BMJ study, led by Wilbur Barral, José Pimienta and Josemar Pessoa, provides a comprehensive analysis of the tariffs currently incurred as well as additional rates that may be imposed based on ongoing discussions with the United States.
The loss of US$3 billion annually reflects the impact of current US tariffs on Brazilian products, including the additional 40% tariff that continues to affect steel, aluminum, copper and wood, and the risks of future tariffs arising from ongoing Section 301 investigations, related to deforestation, intellectual property and payment systems, such as BEX.
In total, the combined monthly loss of Brazilian exports amounts to US$255.95 million (R$1.4 billion) compared to the US$174.88 million (R$945 million) observed only under the 40% tariff, according to the advisory study.
On the 20th, there was a specific easing of tariffs. About 13 groups of products have benefited from the expansion of exceptions announced by US President Donald Trump.
Among the items exempt from the 40% tariff are unroasted coffee, beef, fruit, iron ore and crude oil. These products represent about 26% of the value that was subject to the additional 40% tariff.
However, the tariff keeps 74% of the value of Brazilian exports to the United States under a tightened tariff regime. The high value-added and capital goods sectors were the most affected.
In terms of comparison, throughout 2024, total exports of the three main sectors shipped today (semi-finished steel, coffee and cast iron) amounted to more than US$5.6 billion (R$30.26 billion). This means that it will represent the majority of the potential loss expected for this year.
Sectors still subject to tariffs:
- Earth moving machines and equipment
- Electronic products and transformers
- Semi-finished steel products
- Aircraft and air parts (except civil goods)
- Textiles and shoes
- Instant coffee
Industrial products
According to the consultancy, the various industrial products sector is most affected by tariffs, accounting for monthly losses of US$69.77 million (R$377 million) (27.3% of the total). This category includes products such as manganese alloys, cast iron and tires.
Other severely affected sectors include timber and wood products, at US$28.68 million/month (R$155 million/month), and steel and semi-finished goods, at US$27.63 million/month (R$149.30 million/month).
In the case of wood, the study indicates that the pressure is double, with a 40% tariff added and the threat of additional tariffs (15%) due to deforestation investigations.
The machinery and equipment sector, with a monthly loss of US$25.39 million (R$137.20 million), is losing customers.
The study indicates that suppliers such as Argentina (with tariffs ranging from 0% to 10%), Germany and Canada are gaining competitiveness in goods such as “bulldozers” (war tanks) and cranes.
However, according to the survey, Brazil faces a competitive disadvantage of 25 to 30 percentage points in manufactured goods, compared to US trading partners such as Argentina, the European Union, and the United Kingdom.
For industry, the data reinforces the need for negotiations between the Brazilian government and Trump over the next six months to end tariffs, according to the study.
The British Medical Journal notes that a lack of progress could lead to annual structural losses of between US$3 billion (R$16.21 billion) and US$5 billion (R$27 billion). But if negotiations succeed, Brazil could recover between US$1.4 billion (R$7.6 billion) and US$1.6 billion (R$8.65 billion) annually.