This weekend, there was a question that challenged analysts. After all, has the arrest of Jair Bolsonaro ended or has the political process begun?
From every angle you look at it, the issue of the electronic ankle monitor reveals the former president’s inability to grasp reality, set goals, and build strategies. Whether or not he was in an outbreak when trying to break the ankle bracelet, Bolsonaro’s abilities are in question.
This does not change the fact that everything former President Jair Bolsonaro does has repercussions and impact in 2026. But it does serve to temper expectations regarding the leadership role he may play in the near future.
Today, Bolsonaro’s emergence has a positive impact on Lula in his re-election scenario.
In the first half of 2026, President Lula’s popularity was on the rise, with 28% ratings being excellent or good. The threshold to compete to seek re-election is 30%.
Only when the shadow of Bolsonarianism grew, did the game reverse the signal: amnesty, US tariffs and PEC duties on armor brought Lula back to the competitive level, albeit at the lower end (31%).
The issue of the ankle bracelet and imprisonment will push the parliamentarian to return to the issue of amnesty in the Council, which is a good thing for the Labor Party member, especially if he removes from the agenda the issue of “public security,” which causes great discomfort to the government.
However, Bolsonaro’s influence on the political process will become increasingly incidental and indirect, that is, more of a contextual, public policy agenda, than an actor.
The issue of amnesty to get Bolsonaro back in the game will no longer be discussed, but rather as a topic of humanitarian concern. Polarization around agendas, as demonstrated by the public security issue, will be realigned and no longer based on hostile images, at least not until the candidates are formally appointed.
The non-Bolsonian right – or all sectors that are not members of the Workers’ Party – will build their project without relying on the approval of the former president. There are new conditions of play and it will not be long before the political world recognizes them.
Bolsonaro’s arrest ended a cycle. The wheel turned and the new story that opened did not have the former president at its center.
Leonardo Barreto, PhD in Political Science from UnB