In the not-too-distant reality, Brazil will begin to see its population decline. In just 18 years, in 2042, the country’s population will begin to decline, while the proportion of elderly people will increase. The data comes from the 2024 population projections, released by IBGE on Thursday and made, for the first time, based on data from the 2022 Census. The topic was chosen as the subject of this year’s Enem article: “Perspectives on Aging in Brazilian Society”.
An animated graph developed by GLOBO shows how quickly the country is aging:
In the institute’s previous forecasts, the population decline was expected to begin around 2048. However, new indicators show that in less than 20 years, the population will reach a peak of 220,425,289 in 2041.
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This number will continue to decline until 2070 (the final year of the IBGE forecast), reaching 199,228,708, a decline of more than 0.67% per year.
– In the projections we made in 2018, this population decline would start in the second half of the 2040s, closer to 2048. There was an expectation. In the previous projection, looking at the chart, it seemed like it was rather stable. After the pandemic, the trajectory was downward. It’s an ever-increasing rate of decline, explains Marcio Minamiguchi, director of population projections and estimates at IBGE.
In some states this process will be faster. In Rio de Janeiro, for example, it will only take four years for the population to start declining, in 2028. In Rio Grande do Sul and Alagoas, the population decline is scheduled to begin in 2027.
- Are you young or old? Click and check what the median age is in your state today and what it will be in 2070
Whether faster or slower, the trend is toward contraction in most states. The only one indicating growth over the next few years, and even after 2070, is Mato Grosso.
More elderly people, fewer births
One of the reasons for this decline in population is the decline in the fertility rate and the decline in the number of births, which decreased from 3.6 million annually in 2000 to 2.6 million in 2022, and is expected to decrease to 1.5 million in 2070. These numbers also have an impact on population aging.
From 2000 to 2023, the proportion of elderly people (age 60 or older) in the Brazilian population nearly doubled, rising from 8.7% to 15.6%. If currently the largest group (26.2%) is between the ages of 40 and 59, by 2042, the age group of the elderly will already be the largest. From now on, in 2070, about 37.8% of the country’s population will be elderly.
- When will your state “shrink”? Click and check out the 2022 Census projections
As a result, the average age of the population is also increasing. In 2000 it was 28.3 years. In 2023, it rose to 35.5 and is expected to reach 48.4 years in 2070. In states such as Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul, the population aged 60 and over is already larger than the population aged 0 to 14 years.
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