After the National Sovereignty Day holiday Local markets can benefit from Mood changes From outside. After artificial intelligence stocks reaffirmed the Nasdaq index, which rose by 2.69% and eliminated fears of a bubble, Wall Street analysts’ hopes have changed.
On Thursday of last week, only 38% thought that The Federal Reserve was moving to lower interest rates At the meeting on December 9 and 10. But after the markets closed yesterday, that percentage decreased increased to 80%. The certainty of lower returns would weaken the dollar in the world and boost Argentina’s hopes of moving away from recession Country danger From 600 basis points to start falling to 500 units In this way, they are able to integrate into international markets for credit without resorting to repo operations, international organizations or the US Treasury.
While investors have no doubt that the economic team A repurchase agreement will be agreed and US$4.2 billion will be paid That expire in January, they are unsure about what might happen in July. For sovereign debt obligations maturing in the second half of the year, Argentina must ensure that the index prepared by JPMorgan, which currently stands at 635 units, is reduced to 400 point area essential At the same time, accumulating freely available reserves worth 10,000 million US dollars.
Best weather marked VIX“, popularly known as “Fear index“, which on Wednesday of the previous week approached 30 points, which is the percentage at which the alarm was sounded in North American markets. Monday night It works under 20 pipswhich translates to a calmer scenario. This indicator measures volatility and when it is below 20 points it expects calm.
The variable originates from options on the S&P 500, which is the broadest index on Wall Street due to the number of stocks it includes. In other words, the VIX measures investor sentiment.
The certificates of possession of Argentine stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange did not leave any marks: they remained operational despite the Argentine holiday, but experienced slight decreases and slight increases that did not leave a final result.
Instead, ETFs Of emerging countries, which includes South American stocks and bonds in the measurement, rose 1.1% and expects good performance for Argentine assets. Although the three main indices of the New York stock market last night showed imperceptible declines, there is optimism among investors in the region.
For YPF, the good news is rising oil prices, which last night exceeded 1%, as well as rising gas prices. Among agricultural products, soybeans stand out, which continues to accumulate increases. These products are considered foreign exchange generators and will have a high probability of accumulating reserves in 2026.
The decline of the dollar against the world’s major currencies leads to an increase in the prices of raw materials. The currency is at its lowest level since the beginning of last May. that it Bitcoin is recovering It jumped from the minimum it reached on Friday to $82,000 88,000 US dollarsIt acts as a thermometer for investor confidence.
The omens for Tuesday’s round in Argentina are positive, but there will always be doubt, which will be dispelled tomorrow, about qualification. Tender of treasury debts in pesos. This event will affect interest rates, and therefore the price of the dollar.