Minister Louis Caputo It could not completely remove the uncertainty in the market regarding what will happen with the floating range chart. Although he has publicly stated on several occasions that he will not implement the changes and denied the rumours, Investors are not entirely convinced They still believe there may be adjustments, especially as the refresh rate of the top band accelerates.
However, dollar futures indicate that although investors are not entirely convinced, Caputo’s claim has increasing credibility: In recent days, Much of the curve was running under the floating range roofThis reflects greater confidence in the official version, which guarantees that no changes will occur in the exchange rate system.
At the end of the week, All dollar futures prices from this month through May 2026 were below the upper bandwhich reflects Low expectations of changes in the chart in six months. Until mid-week, before the official exchange rate rebounds, this alignment continues, below the ceiling, until July next year.
This means, Almost the entire dollar future curve was below the ceiling of the range From the float, only the contracts remaining for the last months of next year above. The market does not rule out that more contracts will settle in the short term below the limit again, based on expectations of a downward correction in the official exchange rate.
Change in expectations in the dollar chart
“The basic fact is that a significant portion of the future dollar curve is already within the floating bands, which are 1% per month. A few days ago, the market only “believed” in the chart until April 2026, but as the days passed this was expanded with more contracts below the upper band.”highlights the financial analyst Pedro Ciappa Serrat.
According to the analyst, the top nine in Future dollar (from November of this year to July 2026) practically shows 100% of the operations and volume of this market. Therefore, it can be said that in the last days cThus, the entire dollar futures sector is operating under the range cap. of flotation.
a team SBS Research It states that ““The market seems to set prices.” Anticipation of dollar income flow from strong issuance of corporate and provincial foreign currency debt and potential credits to the nation, which will be added to in the medium term. Strong contributions from energy and mining exports.
“Even dollar futures until May next year operate under a floating range cap (Before the legislative elections, even October contracts of this year were running higher), which indicates that the market is assigning a high probability to the continuation of the current range chart,” he emphasizes.
Moreover, according to the stock broker, the real exchange rate Implicit in certified emission reduction rates and associated dollar instruments indicate that stability is expected in the systemWhile “the government has approved the plan on more than one occasion, and the market has a greater possibility of continuity.” However, he highlights that “it is important, whatever the scheme (everything seems to point to continuity in the ranges for a longer period), that reserves are allowed to accumulate.”
After the recent rebounds, The dollar futures price advanced to $1,429 in the end-November contracts. Directly above $1,425 The official exchange rate in the wholesale sector. December contracts were in place $1,469It is currently the price investors say will close the year. Prices for January ($1,502), February ($1,530), March ($1,564), April ($1,591), and May ($1,618) were also higher, but still below the floating range cap.
More calm in the exchange rate?
Aside from the recent rebounds, Analysts expect the exchange rate to calm down in the coming weeks. This is mainly due to the expectation of an increase in the supply of dollars in the exchange market following the strong issuance of foreign currency debt by companies and provinces, in addition to the seasonal increase in demand for the peso that usually occurs in the last month of the year.
“The exchange rate is showing calm again, favored by corporate debt settlements in the official market. This has happened in recent days in parallel with new pressures on interest rates, especially short-term (guarantee and repo), where The BCRA has once again reduced the concurrent rate (With which the peso absorbs) from 22% to 20% nominally annually, which is very favorable for the rebound in activity,” highlights Invecq.
The consulting firm estimates that “in the coming weeks, This exchange rate calm dynamic is likely to continuesupported mainly by the seasonality of demand for the peso and the increase in the supply of foreign currencies in the official exchange market” after the issuance of corporate and provincial debt securities in foreign currency, which in November alone will amount to more than 4000 million US dollars-Register in management Javier Miley.
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