Firstly, How do you grow? second, How can development go hand in hand with growth? With Phase Two of Miley on the horizon, the debate that increasingly rules the policy game revolves around these central questions for the next two years. The responses imposed will determine the path to 2027. It is linked to what will be evaluated at the end of Javier Miley’s term, in addition to downward inflation: the progress of the real economy with growth and its effects on the square meter of the population, consumption, salaries and their purchasing power. Is macro policy sufficient to irrigate productive growth, as Millia wants? Or do we return to the Ministry of Productive Development, which is loved by non-Muslims?
Economic growth is the regulating goal in the medium and short term. In this context, this debate takes off more and more and passes through Argentine polarization in these new millennium times: there is no longer a relationship between Kirchnerism and anti-Kirchnerism. And now Millism versus Lamillism rules: everything that is desperately trying to reinvent itself after the new Millian triumph, from Peronism and Kirchnerism to opposition to the center that has not jumped into the libertarian universe, where Pollaro, Lustow, Rodríguez Larreta, among others.
From the uninitiated side of life in Argentina, the answer is: a state leadership with virtuous intentions, capable of designing comprehensive productive development policies by sector and region.. It is a conceptual framework that suggests a residual Kirchnerism, or an equally residual Albertism, that faces an existential threat, whether to be or not to continue to exist, and searches for a program that speaks to Argentina’s future of Peronism: such a challenge not only to the Peronist state but to the statist state. After forty years of democracy and abuse of the state based on patronage, we must question the state’s capabilities to disseminate productive intelligence.
But from the Milanese side, the answer is the opposite: to reduce the impotent state of obstacles as much as possible.It is a political action aimed at liberating productive potential from the momentum of the private sector, which moves freely in the new liberated field. That is, for Millennialism, it is possible to achieve development without developmentalism.
The challenge for liberals is to prevent an inefficient state from standing in the way of growth: a new productive derivation unique From the saw that defined Utopia Mileist in the months of its founding. Or on the tongue Pablo LavinSecretary of the Nation’s Productive Coordination, in a discussion organized at the Faculty of Economic Sciences of UBA last week on public policies for productive development: “The capacity of the state is overestimated” and “The best public policy is not to exist.”.
Macroeconomic stability, rational deregulation, integration into the world: until then, the scope of the government’s productive policy is determinedaccording to Lavin. That is, there is no classical production policy. Instead, there is a productive conceptual matrix that finds its tools in other ministries: macroeconomic policy, Sturzenegger’s policy of state reduction, and the policy of removing obstacles to the export-import game. With the combination of labor, tax and pension reforms, the government’s productive policy will be shaped. Practicing productive politics by other means.
He is curious: In the UBA debate, the governor was the one who agreed with Lavigne the most on the productive power of anti-productivists and they made him a second voice Rogelio Frigeriograndson of Rogelio Frigerio, the founding figure of Argentine development With Arturo Frondizi. In the UBA, Frigerio synthesizes the benefits of a dispositional view of productive development policy, as there is no libertarian place for any centralization of that policy. According to the governor of Entre Ríos, “If Paraguay had guaranteed inflation levels, a tax system without taxes, without tax checks and stability, I don’t know how much of a classic industrial policy product would be required of you.” This means that productive policy, modeled on non-political productive policy, will work as well or better than classical productive policy.
By specifying the conditions for aggregate production, it achieves a framework that is both necessary and sufficient, essential for productive development. On the contrary, classical productive management that occurs in the vacuum of macroeconomic rationality will have no fate. This is the worldview that dominates the ruling party regarding growth strategy.
From this perspective, the overall achievements of the government lead to growth associated with development. First, inflation must reach the Paraguayan inflation rate that Frigerio likes, which in 2024 is 3.8 percent per year, and under these conditions, freedom of growth will continue. Minister Luis Caputo has not yet achieved this feat: an annual inflation rate exceeding 10% is still a long way off in Argentina. But for the stage that begins, The ruling party implicitly considers that the stage of containing inflation has been reached: On the economic team, the general narrative is that high and significantly increasing inflation is no longer a problem in Argentina Miley. Although October showed a slight rise in inflation, at 2.3%, the economic team is focused on reducing this increase and treating the problem as practically solved. The version that best summarizes this point is usually provided by the Deputy Minister of Economy, Jose Luis Daza: “Inflation in Argentina will converge with that in the rest of the world.”. In its concept, The basics A zero deficit or fiscal surplus serves as reinsurance against any inflationary emission. Meanwhile, the economic team heads into the summer with new hopes for growth.
The discussion about productive policy that leads to growth is not just a discussion about whether public works is a yes or no: this is just one piece of the puzzle of political differentiation in the coming months involving the productive issue. Millism advances its conception of a minimal state but with positive implications for growth and development. The opposition is being reorganized in defense of politics as the explicit and central driver of this productive process.
In each of these views, there are risks. For the ruling party, there is a causal relationship at stake that has not yet been proven: the relationship that leads from macroeconomic rationality and deregulation, the maximum possible central policy recognized by libertarian management, to growth and development. That is, how The basics The total will and political will to deactivate state bureaucracy is sufficient as a policy for productive development. We hope that the outcome of this process will be felt not only in the big players in the economy and large companies but in the densest social fabric: microenterprises, SMEs, and people.
For an opposition seeking rebirth from political confusion, the danger is that any defense of the planned centralization of the economy will turn into an institutional defense of the political and business classes, once again. Any other productive policy is ineffective, effective in increasing the private and public political treasury, and far from people and changing their living conditions. Or at worst, another version of crony capitalism.
And in this plan of renewal within Peronism in the broad sense, they have done so ever since Emmanuel Alvarez AgisHe is the second man after Kisilov when he was Minister of Economy Martin GuzmanMinister of Economy Alberto Fernandez, Matthias KollvasMinister of Productive Development and, to a large extent, the ideology of the Fundar Foundation, A Think tank Founded by a mathematician Sebastian Siriawhich works on a first-name basis with that leadership and makes its contribution to the design of evidence-based public policies.
Seria has been involved in public affairs for some time. He is a mathematician who graduated from the University of Pennsylvania, successfully devoted himself to the business world of the knowledge economy in the global finance sector, and obtained a doctorate in applied mathematics from Carnegie Mellon University in the United States. In 2019, he sold Axioma, his first technology company, for $850 million. For ten years, in his role as philanthropist, he was instrumental in the realization of the Cero+Infinito project, the construction of the Faculty of Exact Sciences donated by the architect Rafael Viñoly. Seria also made a donation of $150,000 and a personal effort to advance the project through three governments, Cristina Kirchner, Macri, and Alberto Fernández. Its cost amounted to 30 million dollars.
Despite the lack of a clear political affiliation, the Fundar elites at the end of the year illustrate the framework of Peronist leadership above all, but not only Peronism, that was indicated in that vision of productive politics. In fact, the Director of Fundar’s Productive and Sustainable Development Area is a sociologist Daniel ShteyngartAn expert in economic data with a development vision, he worked in the Ministry of Development of Kelvas.
This year, the closing of the Fundar year brought together Eduardo de Pedro; Juan Graboa, Itay Hagman, Hugo Yasque, Ofelia Fernandez and Federico Outremin, as well as Guzmán, Colvas and other former Albertista ministers such as Kelly Olmos. More central lamilia are also usually attended, such as Larita, Monzo and Masot, among others. The most former Macrista there was Lino Barañao. The ruling Melista party was absent.
In that Peronist ideological sector or Peronist edge there Belief in public policies and the role of the state in designing and implementing them. There’s also an effort to find the vulnerability in a would-be Peronist mate to Argentina’s charm that Miley captures better than anyone. But the problem is not simply an ideological one: The question now is whether the same aspects of Kirchner’s doctrine and his version of Albertista can be credibly recycled.. Cyclopsian mission.
However, not everything is as it seems. It shows the lack of status of productive development that gives rise to tendency Contradictions. on the one hand Tierra del Fuegothe special system that is not affected by the tendency. or ReggieAn incentive system for large investments, especially in the field of oil, gas and mining. The classic productive side of government. In fact, the lack of status of the productive policy is accompanied by a fundamental factor: the role of governors and regions.
While the national state makes macroeconomics a productive policy and withdraws from classical development, The governorates end up assuming the productive role in the broad sense, including infrastructure work.. Is it an unwanted contradiction? Or rather the country design influence that Miley imagines? It remains to be proven that it suits everyone.