world Economists Today the focus is on the most glaring deficit shown by the economic programme, which can be summed up in one sentence: the little capacity the economy has. BCRA To accumulate reserves. It is not a secondary issue, of course. But the debate about what comes next inevitably begins with whether it is necessary to adjust the situation Exchange and monetary systemrecalibrate the bands or if appropriate go directly to a free float that places the exchange rate where the market considers optimal.
The discussion emphasizes the instruments, but leaves aside the conceptual aspects that make… background From this case. The main thing is that Argentina does not lack dollar. On the contrary, there are many of them. The problem is that they are not in reserves, and this is an overriding factor Exchange rate system.
This year the economy showed a “natural” ability to generate real dollars through trade surpluses. But a significant portion of this income, as well as that contributed by the companies that were funded Hard currency Abroad, they ended up increasing the Argentines’ savings cushion. Some of them have been deposited in Financial systemOthers ended up in digital wallets (thanks to widespread access to… European Parliament dollarAs for the rest, they went to their usual shelters, outside the system.
Given the size this movement has reached since… government Repurchase dollars without limits after signing the agreement with International Monetary FundBut above all because of the size it gained after the electoral defeat in Buenos Aires Provinceanalysts identified it as a bullfight.
And here the Argentines did not stop to see if Gangsters It was good, if the amount of pesos was excessive or if price It was expensive. Immediately, they bought. Their motivation, as in the past, was mistrust and fear of retreat Interventions On those funds, they are called corralitos or Stocks Of different calibres.
The government defended this path. He has accepted that this defense mechanism infringes on his ability to accumulate ReservationsIt resorted to financial or short-term solutions to compensate for the gap: first it was reducing deductions, then… Switch Of the United States then credit variables (Special Drawing Rights draft of the US Treasury or a Repo lineis still under discussion). In any case, it ensured debt repayment and prioritized other goals, such as keeping inflation within acceptable ranges. Analysts blame him because if he does not accept the dollar, he will be forced to do so sooner or later pays invoice.
This is the gap that we cross today Economic debate. The academy calls for flotation, even if it comes at the expense of the risk of a jump in the exchange rate affecting prices. The government prefers to maintain a Link crawl To give a predictable path to the exchange rate, ensuring that He asks The number of savers will decrease and energy and agriculture will add supply.
Reserves will be replenished, perhaps sooner rather than later. Until then, there it is US Treasury Vigilance and alertness. This reading has a political element: thanks to this exchange rate system, the government won the midterm elections and even reversed its setback in Buenos Aires. Those who have to highlight their ideas finance 2026, they should not ignore this information.
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