After the ruling party won the legislative elections Country danger It witnessed a collapse of more than 400 basis points. However, in recent days it has remained above 600 units, which has hampered the economic team’s plan to return to the voluntary debt markets to refinance the debt. Expiry by 4.3 billion US dollars January 2026.
Economists consulted by Infobae highlighted macroeconomic progress on fiscal matters and a slowdown in inflation, but the unanimous view was on accumulation. to International reserves As a key factor it can tip the balance in the perception of the markets, reducing the state risk and facilitating the return Argentina To international credit.
The index developed by JP Morgan, which currently stands at 653 basis points, estimates the probability of a country failing to meet its debt obligations with international creditors. In addition, it reflects the level of uncertainty investors face when placing capital in that country and is calculated from the difference in the prices of US Treasuries, which are considered risk-free, and in this case, Argentine sovereign securities.
In dialogue with this medium, Financial analyst Christian Boteler Summarize the situation in the diagnosis: “What the government needs is to accumulate reserves. It is already financially balanced, and there is greater order at the financial level, although there are always things that need to be corrected. Inflation, although stagnant at around 2%, has shown a significant downward trajectory and it stands to reason that the most expensive part will come now. Central Bank They have “their own real reserves, which in case of any eventuality do not have to resort to the International Monetary Fund or the North American Treasury. That is, they have their own resources so that they can meet any debts that may arise.”
At the same time, he stressed the need to move towards eliminating exchange restrictions: “You cannot expect to have corporate shares and try to go to the international market and make a large debt deposit. Small deposits can be made, but what happens? Argentina needs to get back to the markets And every time it comes due, rest assured that your country’s risk allows you to take out debt to pay off old debts.
Partially coincided Camillo Tiscorniadirector of C&T Asesores Financieros, who added another factor to the analysis: uncertainties regarding the loan from international banks to the government. “In recent days, what has caused some noise is the issue that in principle there will not be this The famous $20 billion package To carry out debt operations, but there, they will be 5 billion US dollars. This has played a bit against the country’s risks, showing that a lot of attention is being paid to this support, because the accumulation of reserves is currently very slow.
Tskornia stressed that the influx of foreign currencies that usually generates monetization of the agricultural export sector could affect the level of reserves in the coming weeks: “A good test will be what happens during December, when there will certainly be more sales of dollars from the private sector for pesos and the wheat harvest, a record, will begin to appear soon. With this influx of dollars, the government can somehow start accumulating. The Treasury has half the right to the peso at this moment, so “which will be necessary to see if the central bank will buy there.”
For his part, the economic expert in Economy magazine said: Alejandro GiacoiaHe agreed to that “The key now is to accumulate reserves.”. In his view, some concerns among global investors have dissipated after the government’s victory in the midterm elections, but resistance to breaching the 600 basis points threshold remains. Moreover, he stressed that although the government has publicly committed to moving forward with the replenishment of reserves, the process must be implemented so that the risks to the country continue to be reduced.
“Reserves can be considered as A type of insurance “We are showing the world that if anything happens, we are not relying on the lender of last resort to bail us out, which is why I think it is so important to put them back together,” Giacoia added.
In turn, Guido Zac, Director of Economics at FundarHe said the way to reduce the country’s risks to lower levels involved generating certainty regarding compliance with upcoming debt maturities without resorting to extraordinary loans. “Accumulating reserves would give certainty That Argentina will be able to pay the following due dates without having to use loans. He pointed out that the January maturity is the most important one that will be paid, and paying it by taking another debt such as swaps or repo is not the same as paying it with some accumulation of reserves.
Zach demonstrates the potential for accumulation US dollars Required: 4.3 billion That is unlikely to happen before January, although it highlights the calming effect that any buildup, even partial, has for markets. “If the government actually started accumulating, calming the markets and generating a reduction in the country’s risks, it would not even be necessary to use the accumulation for all debt. The government would be in better conditions to refinance this debt in the market without having to resort to the same reserves and even less to swaps.”
The economist also offered a warning about the potential side effects of the policy of accelerated currency hoarding: “The accumulation of reserves increases the demand for the dollar. If the demand for dollars increases, the exchange rate will rise and the process of deceleration of inflation will be slower. But doing so, even if it slows the process of disinflation, does not detract from the goal of reaching an annual inflation rate of 10% or less.
Total international reserves held in accounts Today’s central bank total stands at US$41.959 million. However, the net figure, which deducts the authority’s monetary obligations, is close to zero and is even in negative territory if the 12-month Argentine Free Reconstruction Bond payments (Poprial) are included.