“With the dollar reaching $1,500, no one is complaining.” A heavyweight businessman launched into the industrial red circle. A few months ago, the private sector saw that the exchange rate was behind schedule. However, today he believes it is Sustainable, although he stresses that he still needs to recover something more. The problem these days is adjusting the exchange ranges and the risks of going back to A level An “unnecessary” rise in the pesoIn addition to the accumulation of reserves.
The general expectation is that the price of the US currency will remain Stable until the end of the year. It was a completely different scene from previous elections, where there was a conviction that Peronism would win and that markets would react with great volatility. It was even the topic of conversation at a meeting Group of six – Representatives of the country’s most important business chambers – with a climate of certain fear, but now The feeling is “relief,” as one of its members described it.. They have a pending conversation before the end of the year.
However, The dollar still has a way to go. President of the Argentine Industrialists Union (UIA) martin rapalini, It is confirmed with the current price This industry is “20% more expensive than Brazil and Mexico.” Especially “due to structural deformities.” He said in radio statements: “There are not enough dollars if internal productivity problems continue.”
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$1,500, “no transfer” price
An agribusiness leader from the Purple Circle of the business community estimated that the exchange rate It shouldn’t “varies a lot” because it is a “non-convertible” price To the gondola. “There is a big influx of dollars coming in and the support from the United States means they won’t go out and buy too much,” he said. “It’s hard to predict against Trump.” Introductory account, Regarding RIGI’s investments and huge AI announcement.
A small and medium-sized businessman in the field of metals who exports stated that the currency “Lacks at least 10% to 15%But it will only succeed if this is not translated into prices.”If you move it it is the same. Today, the industry buys inputs in dollars, unfortunately the adjustment variable is the loss of purchasing power of the people and this is actually the main problem for SMEs and the economy.
Speculation about a partial devaluation of the currency is still ongoing. A company working in the field of manufacturing medical supplies It prices its products in January at $1,544 and in February at $1,575. For April the exchange rate will trend to $1635. All numbers tracking the future development of the Rofex dollar, but with an increase of 2%. “Just in case”They were justified.
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Bands that lose in real terms
Today, the dollar moves between two ranges, a minimum of $933 and a maximum of $1,499. President Javier Miley said that the exchange rate will not float, but rather that the limits will expand until it becomes irrelevant. This is something that would cause the exchange rate to lose its competitiveness as the borders expand. Today the scope of laissez-faire is growing at a rate of 1%, but inflation is advancing by about 2%. The former Minister of Economy said: “It does not compensate for the fact that the ceiling decreases in real terms as long as inflation is greater than 1% per month.” Hernan Lacunza.
eco go manager, Sebastian MeniscaldiAgreed upon in dialogue with Introductory account“Today is a sustainable exchange rate, especially if the capital market is accessed. The problem is adjusting the bands, if it continues like this, the exchange rate may rise unnecessarily or not keep up if there is a shock, which will force BCRA to sell reserves unnecessarily.” According to agency information BloombergCaputo told investors during his trip to the United States that the government plans to accelerate the pace of updating the laissez-faire scope from 1% to 1.5%.
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