Ukraine’s political system is preparing for a “mini-revolution” as the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is forced to adapt to life without his closest adviser, chief enforcer and most loyal aide, Andriy Yermak, who resigned on Friday after police searched his apartment as part of a widening anti-corruption investigation.
Yermak’s resignation could have serious consequences for internal governance, as well as Ukraine’s negotiating position in talks to end the war with Russia, as he served as head of the Ukrainian delegation in peace talks with the White House.
Kiev-based political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko says: “It is a mini-revolution in the political system and the system of government.” “Yermak was the key element in the system of power that Zelensky built.”
A former intellectual property lawyer, Yermak became a B-movie producer and then a lawyer for Zelenskyy’s production company, while he was still an actor. When his friend won the presidential election in 2019, Yermak entered politics with him, first as a foreign policy advisor, and a year later as chief of staff.
Yermak seemed to become an outcast as he approached the president during the years of large-scale war. He managed the most sensitive aspects of Ukraine’s foreign policy, spoke regularly with national security advisors of allied countries and was in charge of the working group in peace negotiations.
He was also Zelensky’s main political intermediary, often issuing orders to ministers and was seen by many as the embodiment of the president’s will. It was Yermak who traveled to London to meet with former army chief Valery Zalozny, considered by many to be Zelensky’s most dangerous political rival, and suggested that he join the president’s team.
Few among the Ukrainian elite liked Yermak, but many expressed grudging admiration for his work ethic and ruthless schemes. Some considered that the level of control, unusual in a democratic state, was justified in the context of war. Moreover, his role as a hate figure often helped protect Zelensky.
Even when Yermak’s apartment was searched on Friday, few expected it would lead to his ouster from office, as the idea spread that Zelensky would not sacrifice his most trusted aide at any cost.
Although Yermak has not yet been charged with anything, the anti-corruption investigation threatens to dominate the news agenda and spark a full-blown crisis, amid growing public dissatisfaction with corruption.
Zelensky’s popularity has already been severely affected by the scandal. The Ukrainska Pravda newspaper reported on Saturday through sources that investigators had confiscated several laptops and mobile phones from Yermak’s apartment for analysis.
“For Zelensky, it was difficult to make the decision, because he understood the political necessity, but he was psychologically dependent on Yermak,” Fesenko says, noting that Yermak’s resignation was likely his decision rather than Zelensky’s order. He added: “I think Yermak understood that if he fell, he would drag Zelensky down with him, and decided to sacrifice himself to save Zelensky.”
As always happens after the fall of a powerful political figure, the adjustment period can be complicated. Some of Yermak’s loyal followers will now fear for their jobs, while many other members of the elite will breathe a sigh of relief and hope to gain more direct access to the president.
“Not only did Yermak control the president’s communications with the outside world, he also controlled the information that reached the president,” says Olena Prokopenko, a senior researcher at the German Marshall Fund.
Yermak is believed to have controlled a network of Telegram channels that vilified those who got in his way, and was known to tightly control access to Zelensky. “There were about five or six people who had direct access to the president, and Yermak tried to systematically expel them,” says Fesenko.
Among those who managed to resist was veteran military intelligence chief Kirilo Budanov, who survived several dismissal attempts led by Yermak. Others who disagreed with Yermak or were considered too popular were unceremoniously dismissed.
Zelensky is expected to announce his replacement soon. Most of the names considered so far belong to the president’s inner circle, but whoever is chosen is unlikely to have power comparable to Yermak’s, at least initially.
This could pose a challenge for the weakened Zelensky, especially if the corruption investigation leads to new discoveries. On the other hand, it could contribute to his presidency, which has already extended more than a year from its scheduled date due to the inability to hold elections during martial law, an influx of new ideas and more consensual decision-making, which many have called for.
“There is a very strong demand in Ukrainian society to review the social contract between the president and the people, and to restructure the relationship between the president, the Cabinet and Parliament,” says Prokopenko.