Political scientist and professor at the Brazilian School of Public Administration and Business Administration (FGV EBAPE), Carlos Pereira, wrote in the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo that Bolsonarianism has become a burden and that the right is searching for freedom. Maybe it should, but no. There must be your reasons.
For what right has Bolsonarianism become a burden? For those who call themselves civilized, but voted for Bolsonaro in the first and second rounds of the 2028 elections, beating Fernando Haddad (PT)? For the part of the supposed civilized right that in 2022 voted for Lula with its nose covered? Bolsonaro narrowly failed to win re-election.
Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), Governor of São Paulo State, presents himself as one of the names of the civilized right who knows how to behave elegantly at the banquet table. This is also the case for many of those who defend him as the only aspiring president capable of defeating Lula in 2026.
If the Bolsonarianism and its leader are indeed a burden, what’s to stop Tarcisio from getting rid of them and moving on? It’s simple: he doesn’t have enough votes or support to undertake such an adventure. He will not even have to be re-elected governor. He was elected because Bolsonaro reached out to him. It remains dependent on Bolsonarianism.
This is the same situation faced by other right-wing presidential candidates – Romeo Zema (Novo), Governor of Minas Gerais, Ronaldo Caedo (Uniao-Brazil), Governor of Goiás, and Ratinho Junior (PSD), Governor of Paraná. Not to mention the strangers watching everything from a distance without showing their heads.
The recent public security crisis has given the opposition a new lease of life, believes Pereira, the political scientist, and those betting on a dramatic, close election full of surprises are repeating that. Yes, it could be. Or not. Because the security crisis finally awakened Lula to what he pretended to ignore.
Lucky man, that’s Lola. It benefited from the invasion and sack of Praça dos Três Poderes on January 8, 2023. It gained significant political gains by raising the flag of the National Union. Bolsonarianism suffered a severe blow there. Lula benefited from discovering that the army was about to join the coup.
For the first time in Brazilian history, four-star generals, high-ranking officers and a former president of the republic were found guilty of trying to abolish democracy, became defendants and ended up being convicted and imprisoned. Bolsonaro will soon begin serving a prison sentence of 27 years and three months.
Finally, Lula benefited from Trump’s tariffs and his unreasonable interference in Brazil’s problems. His immediate reaction was to wrap himself in the national flag and defend the country’s sovereignty. The right was silent or stood by Trump. He has so far paid a heavy price for his blunder.
Equating organized crime with terrorism is an indication that the right will once again turn to Trump for help. There doesn’t seem to be any other way. Out of a total of 9 presidential elections since the end of the military dictatorship, the right won 4 (1989, 1994, 1998 and 2018) and lost 5 (2002, 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2022).
All columns from Noblat’s blog at Metropoles
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