Far-right candidates Jose Antonio Cast And the libertarian Johannes KaiserThey will be tied for about 20 percent voting intent, and it will be this Sunday, the 16th, when it will be determined at the ballot box which … He will head to the second round of the Chilean presidential election to face the candidate of the ruling Communist Party Janet JaraWho will receive 33.6% of the votes.
This data appears in the latest survey conducted in chili Written by sociologist Alberto Maiol and his company La Cosa Nostra, which ABC has had access to.
Chile bans publication Surveys electorally during the fifteen days preceding the elections, a measure described by the Chilean press and experts in the population industry as backward and ridiculous. As a result of this ban, the country witnesses a black market in ballot boxes every election cycle.
Four private polls have been widely circulated on WhatsApp and Telegram in the past two weeks, and the fifth measurement, prepared by La Cosa Nostra, can now be known thanks to the ABC network.
Chile: secret elections
Intention to vote by percentage
: area
: It was implemented between
November 3 and 11sample
: A sampling frame of 250,000 contacts.
Online application
600 valid interviews were conducted fountain: La Cosa Nostra and agencies
/ABC
Chile: secret elections
Intention to vote by percentage
: area: It happened between November 3 and 11
sample
: A sampling frame of 250,000 contacts. Online application 600 valid interviews were conductedfountain:
La Cosa Nostra and agencies /ABCa result This is the latest pollWhich concluded its field work on Tuesday, November 11, coinciding with other well-known surveys these days. Communist Jara, standard-bearer of the center-left and supporter of the continuity of the government
Gabriel Borek
will take first place in Sunday’s voting. The La Cosa Nostra poll is credited with the highest percentage of votes of all known polls (see chart), the result of filtering out the undecided. The truth is dividedGreat grandmother is in
Right-wing candidates
It is a sector divided into three candidates who share between 55 percent and 60 percent of voting intentions. The most likely candidate in all opinion polls to advance to the second round against Jara is José Antonio Caste, from the Republican Party. Moreover, the majority of those surveyed agree that Caste is the preferred candidate to be the next president of Chile. However, polls in recent weeks have revealed a strong lead for the liberal candidate, YouTuber Johannes Kaiser. According to La Cosa Nostra, Kast, who received 20.3 percent, and Kaiser, who received 20.0 percent, will be technically tied for second place, so determining who goes to a runoff could be a matter of photograph. As for Evelyn Mathie, the center-right candidate who only a few months ago was the sector’s favorite, she has fallen to 16.2 percent of voting intentions, and is far from contention in the second round. Many observers see this as the most puzzling fact on the political level: the once organized right is now divided into three competing candidates. Many analysts believe that a single right-wing candidacy would have made it possible to win the election
presidency directly in the first round, where he received more than 50% of the votes, and that this would have better reflected Chileans’ desire for change. As for the rest of the candidates, they appear without real options: the populist Franco ParisiIt remains at 5.5 percent; The middle Harold Mayne Nicholsin 3.2; Leftist Marco Enriquez Ominamiat 0.7, and communist
Eduardo Artes
by 0.5 percent. A country that votes blindlyThe publication of this data contravenes the legal framework that many in Chile consider outdated. Since 2016, Law No. 18700 has created one of the longest bans in the democratic world:
Fifteen days without surveys
This period is shared only by Paraguay, Italy, Greece, Slovakia and Montenegro. In Europe, most countries limit power outages to less than a week – as is the case in Spain – and many, especially the Scandinavian and Anglo-Saxon countries, do not do this at all.
The original goal of the Chilean rule was to protect voters from manipulated or systematically deficient opinion polls. In practice, the measure achieves the opposite: it expels the media from the information cycle and enables opaque channels, where information is circulated without any scrutiny.
The Chilean law was intended to protect voters from manipulated or incomplete polls, but in reality it enables opaque channels, without verification. The irony is clear: while the official media is muzzled, the results of private measurements are shared daily in WhatsApp groups, Telegram lists and unofficial threads. This restriction, far from protecting, generates democratic asymmetry: only the best-connected people have access to data. The average citizen is left in the information darkness.The Chilean newspaper La Tercera denounced in an editorial that the rule “facilitates the work of those who publish false or manipulated content” and excludes those who can verify it. And the political world Alberto Mayolfrom
La Cosa Nostra He defended his practice against criticism from other pollsters, sparking a public debate taking place, ironically, without being able to show the numbers that led to it. Massive leakage of these
Opinion polls show the gap between Chilean legislation and the digital ecosystem. The ban, intended to ensure a period of reflection, forces voters to vote blindly in the most decisive phase of the campaign, while the political elite acts with up-to-date information and strategy. The result is a model that erodes pre-voting equality and turns information into privilege. Electoral authorities have defended the rule as an institutional safeguard, but each election cycle shows that “blackout” no longer works: the public conversation continues its course in the shadows, and citizens are forced to orient themselves among the rumours.
About The Author
